Can the First 10 Games Predict Playoff Chances?

Over the course of a full season, the worst teams in baseball typically put together a winning streak or two. And even the best teams go through some slumps. It might surprise you, then, that over the last 10 seasons, the record of teams in their first 10 games of the season shows a clear correlation with their chances of making the playoffs.

None of the five teams that started 1-9 over the last decade reached the postseason, so it’s a good thing that every team has started this season with at least two wins. The Diamondbacks certainly did not get out of the gate the way they would have wanted to with a 2-8 record, but they have managed to win their two games since, and 2 of the 16 teams (13 percent) in their situation have rebounded to make a playoff run.

In contrast, the teams with at least 8 wins in their first 10 games have made the playoffs half of the time. Through the games on Thursday, April 10, three teams are still in the running for that distinction. The Tigers (5-2) and Nationals (7-2) were on most people’s favorite lists before the season, so there is little surprise there. However, if the trend continues, the Brewers (7-2) could be this season's big surprise team. And their chances look even better now that there is an additional wild card spot in each league.