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How Many More No-Hitters This Year?
Posted by John Dewan on Dec 16th 2015
May 29, 2014
Last Sunday, Josh Beckett submitted the first no-hitter of the 2014 season as the Dodgers beat the Phillies 6-0. Beckett has had a difficult transition back to the National League. Last season, he had an ERA over 5.00 in eight starts and missed the rest of the season with a compressed nerve that required surgery. Early indications are that he has regained that old form now that he’s healthy. His no-hitter lowered his ERA this season to 2.43, ninth lowest in the NL among qualified starters.
If recent seasons are any indication, Beckett’s no-hitter may be the first of many this season. In 2011 and 2012, there were an incredible 10 no-hitters in baseball. Last year there were three, for a total of 13 in the last three years. However, just looking at recent seasons does not provide the best basis of comparison, especially since runs scored in baseball have been declining over the last half decade.
To estimate how many no-hitters we might see the rest of this season, let’s look at the 25 seasons most similar to 2014 in runs scored per team per game:
| Seasons Most Similar to 2014 in Runs/G | ||||
| Season | Runs/G | Run Diff | No Hitters | Games |
| 2013 | 4.17 | 0.00 | 3 | 2,431 |
| 1944 | 4.17 | 0.00 | 2 | 1,242 |
| 1945 | 4.18 | 0.01 | 1 | 1,230 |
| 1952 | 4.18 | 0.01 | 3 | 1,239 |
| 1988 | 4.14 | 0.03 | 1 | 2,100 |
| 1989 | 4.13 | 0.04 | 0 | 2,106 |
| 1973 | 4.21 | 0.04 | 5 | 1,943 |
| 1975 | 4.21 | 0.04 | 3 | 1,934 |
| 1974 | 4.12 | 0.05 | 3 | 1,945 |
| 1992 | 4.12 | 0.05 | 1 | 2,106 |
| 1978 | 4.10 | 0.07 | 2 | 2,102 |
| 1942 | 4.08 | 0.09 | 0 | 1,224 |
| 1984 | 4.26 | 0.09 | 2 | 2,105 |
| 1990 | 4.26 | 0.09 | 7 | 2,105 |
| 1969 | 4.07 | 0.10 | 6 | 1,946 |
| 1958 | 4.28 | 0.11 | 2 | 1,235 |
| 2011 | 4.28 | 0.11 | 3 | 2,429 |
| 1980 | 4.29 | 0.12 | 1 | 2,105 |
| 1913 | 4.05 | 0.12 | 0 | 1,234 |
| 1964 | 4.04 | 0.13 | 3 | 1,626 |
| 1982 | 4.30 | 0.13 | 0 | 2,107 |
| 1957 | 4.31 | 0.14 | 1 | 1,235 |
| 1960 | 4.31 | 0.14 | 3 | 1,236 |
| 1983 | 4.31 | 0.14 | 3 | 2,109 |
| 1991 | 4.31 | 0.14 | 6 | 2,104 |
| 61 | 45,178 | |||
Not surprisingly, the season most similar to 2014 is 2013. So far this season, teams have averaged 4.17 runs per game. Last year, they also averaged 4.17. However, beyond a season ago, the most similar seasons to the start of 2014 are scattered across the 40s, 50s, 70s, and 80s, other periods of depressed run scoring in baseball history.
These 25 seasons featured quite a few no-hitters. Only four of the 25 seasons did not have a no-hitter, and another four of the seasons had at least five no-hitters. Since earlier seasons of baseball did not all feature 30 teams and 162-game seasons, a straight average undersells the expected number of no-hitters for the rest of this season. However, if you add up all the no-hitters in those 25 seasons and pro-rate them to a full season of games for this season, you end up with an average of 3.3 no-hitters.
So, it seems fair to expect another two or three no-hitters the rest of the way in 2014.