Who Are The 2014 MVP Candidates?

It’s never happened before, but could pitchers win the MVP award in both leagues? Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez are posting some gaudy pitching numbers. The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in the National League, and Kershaw’s MLB-best 13-2 record and MLB-best 1.82 ERA have a lot to do with it. Over in the AL, King Felix has a 12-3 record with an AL-best 1.97 ERA, and the lowest Opponent OPS in all of baseball. That puts the Seattle Mariners right in the thick of the Wild Card hunt.

Jose Abreu and Mike Trout beg to differ with the King. Abreu is pretty much a lock for the Rookie of the Year award and could be just the third player in history to win ROY and MVP awards in the same year (Fred Lynn, 1975 and Ichiro Suzuki, 2001). He leads all of baseball with 31 home runs and 86 RBI despite a DL stint because of a foot injury. He has been particularly excellent lately with a .352/.447/.549 triple slash (Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage) since the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, Mike Trout is enjoying another superb season, and after finishing second in the MVP voting two years in a row to Miguel Cabrera, this could finally be the year he breaks through. He leads all of baseball in WAR (6.1 Wins Above Replacement according to Baseball Reference).

In the NL, the best contenders are skiing off the course. Troy Tulowitzki was running away with it as he still leads the league in WAR and leads baseball in OPS, batting average, and on-base percentage, but his recent hip injury along with playing for the worst team in baseball adds some doubt to his chances. Other players now watching from the sideline include reigning MVP Andrew McCutchen (broken rib) and Paul Goldschmidt (broken hand). These recent injuries have opened the door wide for Clayton Kershaw.

And for Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is a major contender as well with his NL-leading 27 home runs. But one of my favorite stats that we haven’t mentioned yet is Total Runs, and Stanton has the best MLB total.

Kershaw has missed a few starts due to injury – he has 76 Total Runs.

The American League Leaders in Total Runs are:

Where are Felix Hernandez and Jose Abreu? Hernandez is just off the list with 91 Total Runs. Abreu is a pure hitter. He doesn’t get any runs in the Total Runs formula for baserunning or defense – in fact he loses runs. And he doesn’t play a key defensive position so his Total Runs for the season stand at 81 thus far.

In summary, here are my unscientific probabilities for MVP winners in each league:

American League: Trout 50 percent, King Felix 20 percent, Abreu 10 percent, Josh Donaldson 10 percent, Someone Else 10 percent. Mike Trout is an elite hitter and baserunner at a premium defensive position, and he plays for a major contender in the pennant race.

National League: Tulowitzki 35 percent, Kershaw 30 percent, Stanton 20 percent, Someone Else 15 percent. It’s a battle royale to the end and depends a lot on how soon Tulo returns.