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Who's Hot and Who's Not...according to Bill James

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April 30, 2015

Several years ago, Bill James devised a system that measures how hot or cold a player currently is. And it's as easy to understand as a thermometer. His temperature rating scales a player’s hotness or coldness on the same scale as Fahrenheit temperatures, where players start at a room temperature of 72 degrees and then increase or decrease from there based on how well they have performed of late.

Let’s take a look at the hottest hitters through yesterday’s games:

The Hottest Hitters, April 30
Player Temperature
Jose Altuve 99°
Josh Reddick 96°
Denard Span 96°
Paul Goldschmidt 95°
Manny Machado 94°
Mark Trumbo 94°
Dee Gordon 94°
Jake Marisnick 94°
Miguel Cabrera 93°
A.J. Pierzynski 92°

 

Jose Altuve is the closest batter to 100 degrees. He has two or more hits in seven consecutive days, including four doubles in the most recent three games. Josh Reddick can’t boast multiple hits over his last seven games, but he does have an old-fashioned seven-game hitting streak. Denard Span’s hot streak is more compact. He has seven hits over his last two days, including two home runs and four doubles.

One name noticeably absent from the current hottest hitter list is Adrian Gonzalez. No one was hotter than Gonzalez to start the season. He had 10 hits in his first 13 at-bats of the season including five home runs. He’s cooled off somewhat from that torrid start, but his peak temperature of 129 degrees is not only the best by any hitter so far this season—the highest peak temperature by any player since the start of the decade.

The Highest Highs of Hitters, 2010-2015
Player Date Temperature
Adrian Gonzalez 4/10/2015 129°
David Ortiz 5/14/2014 127°
Adrian Beltre 8/24/2012 127°
Jose Bautista 7/30/2010 126°
Carlos Santana 7/29/2014 125°
Giancarlo Stanton 8/14/2010 125°

 

Meanwhile, here are the coldest hitters through yesterday’s games:

The Coldest Hitters, April 30
Player Temperature
Jorge Soler 42°
Drew Stubbs 46°
Chris Iannetta 46°
Mike Zunino 47°
Casey McGehee 48°
Christian Yelich 48°
Andrew Lambo 48°
Jeff Francoeur 48°
Ian Desmond 48°
Geovany Soto 48°

 

Jorge Soler has some separation from the rest of the field of cold hitters. He has just two hits in his most recent 26 at-bats with 15 strikeouts. Drew Stubbs has been a part-time player for the Rockies this season and is hitless in his 20 at-bats this season. Chris Iannetta and Mike Zunino are hitting .093 and .121, respectively. The good news for Zunino is that his .161 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is the fifth lowest in baseball and is 86 points below his career level. His can be expected to bounce back moving forward.


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