What's wrong with Big Papi?
June 5, 2009
Much has been made of David Ortiz's slow start in
2009. The 33-year-old went 1-for-4 on Wednesday,
raising his average to .187. Ortiz's power has also disappeared,
with just one home run this year after hitting 23 in only 109 games
last year, 35 in 2007 along with a .332 batting average, and a
league-leading 54 in 2006.
Is this just a slow start, or is Big Papi on his
last legs? The biggest indication of his problem is his strikeout
rate. In 2007 and 2008 Ortiz had a strikeout every
five-and-a-half at-bats. This year he's well under
one strikeout per four at-bats:
| David
Ortiz—Strikeout rate
|
| Season
|
At-bats
|
Strikeouts
|
AB/K
|
| 2007 |
549
|
103
|
5.3 |
| 2008 |
416
|
74 |
5.6 |
| 2009 |
187
|
51
|
3.7 |
Let’s also take a look at his batted ball
distribution by type:
| David
Ortiz—Distribution of Batted Balls
|
| Season
|
Balls in Play
|
Grounders
|
Liners
|
Fliners
|
Flies
|
| 2007 |
449
| 37%
| 11%
| 14%
| 37%
|
| 2008 |
346
| 36%
| 8%
| 18%
| 37%
|
| 2009 |
140
| 26%
| 9%
| 27%
| 38%
|
Ortiz's flyball rate is nearly identical, and his
line drive rate is within his normal range as well. He is hitting
10% fewer groundballs than normal, and those hits are becoming
fliners (the classification between line drives and flyballs).
Ordinarily, this would be a good sign. Balls in
the air go for hits far more often than groundballs, especially for a
power hitter like Ortiz, and they have the potential to turn into
extra-base hits. A look at the average distance of each batted
ball type tells us a different story:
| David
Ortiz—Average Distance (feet)
|
| Season
|
Liners
|
Fliners
|
Flies
|
| 2007 |
205
|
302
|
310 |
| 2008 |
214
|
296
|
275 |
| 2009 |
158
|
278
|
261 |
Ortiz is hitting more balls in the air, but if
distance is any indication, he's not hitting them nearly as hard.
His liners, fliners, and flies aren't carrying as much as they used
to.
If Big Papi doesn't start hitting the ball more
frequently, and when he does hit it, hit it harder, he will never
again be the force that twice led Boston to World Series titles.
