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John Dewan, owner of Baseball Info Solutions and co-publisher of ACTA
Sports, offers his weekly Stat of the Week.
To have the Stat of the Week e-mailed to your inbox for free each week, send an e-mail message to info@actasports.com and type "opt in" in the first line of text.
Can the Bears overcome the odds? December 23, 2008 This week's Stat of the Week is about overcoming the odds. The Chicago Bears entered the
weekend with a slim-to-none chance of making the playoffs. After the weekend's games, including last night's
incredible come-from-behind victory by the Bears over Green Bay, every single game the Bears could need to make
the playoffs went their way. Four possible playoff teams were favored to win their games this weekend and all
four lost. Counting last night, five games all went the Bears' way. Let's calculate the odds that all these
games would go in the direction the Bears wanted:
| Playoff Contender |
Game Result
(home team in CAPS) |
Probability of Outcome
Favoring Bears Prior to
Game |
| Dallas |
Baltimore 33, DALLAS 24 |
Dallas favored,
call it 45% chance of losing |
| Philadelphia |
WASHINGTON 10, Philadelphia 3 |
45% chance of losing |
| Tampa Bay |
San Diego 41, TAMPA BAY 24 |
45% chance of losing |
| Minnesota |
Atlanta 24, MINNESOTA 17 |
45% chance of losing |
| Bears |
BEARS 20, Green Bay 17 |
Bears favored at home,
call it 60% chance of winning |
To figure the odds that all these games would go the Bears' way, we just multiply the
probabilities together and get 2% (.45x.45x.45x.45x.60). The chances that all five games would go the Bears' way
was 2 percent! Incredible.
Where are the Bears at now? First, they have to win against Houston. Chicago is favored by 3
right now so we'll call the Bears' chance of winning 60%. Then, they have two chances. Minnesota loses to the
New York Giants to win the division, or Dallas and Tampa Bay both lose for the Bears to win the wild card.
Here's the summary:
| Playoff Contender |
Game |
Probability of Outcome
Favoring Bears Prior to
Game |
| Minnesota |
New York Giants at Minnesota |
Minnesota favored,
call it 40% chance of losing |
| Dallas |
Dallas at Philadelphia |
Dallas slightly favored,
call it 48% chance of losing |
| Tampa Bay |
Oakland at Tampa Bay |
Tampa Bay heavily favored,
call it 35% chance of losing
|
| Bears |
Bears at Houston |
Bears favored, 60% chance of winning |
Bears chances to win the division: 24% (60% x 40%)
Bears chances to win the wild card:
10% (60% x 48% x 35%)
Add them together and you get the Bears overall chance of making the playoffs at 34%.
Considering they just overcame 2% odds, 34% almost looks like a certainty!
Archived Stats
Can the Bears overcome the odds?
December 23, 2008
What is it with Chad Bradford anyways?
December 11, 2008
Which is the best situation to score?
December 3, 2008
Thanksgiving in Chicago
November 26, 2008
Michael Young, Gold Glove shortstop?
November 18, 2008
What about Nate McLouth's Gold Glove?
November 14, 2008
Have the home run parks changed in the last five years?
November 6, 2008
Who are the Fielding Bible Award
winners for 2008?
October 30, 2008
Is scoring lower in the postseason?
October 15, 2008
Who are the best teams
in this year's playoffs?
October 1, 2008
Is it easy to score a runner from third
with less than two outs?
September 25, 2008
Who are the best fielding pitchers?
September 18, 2008
Are K-Rod's saves tougher than Thigpen's were in 1990?
September 5, 2008
What’s the toughest save in baseball?
August 29, 2008
Are long at-bats
more productive than short ones?
August 22, 2008
What country will win the most medals in Beijing?
August 8, 2008
Who uses their closers in tough situations?
August 1, 2008
Who are baseball's best baserunners this year?
July 23, 2008
Who has the cannons in the outfield so far this year?
July 18, 2008
Which All-Stars earned the trip to New York?
July 10, 2008
Is it harder to steal on lefties?
June 27, 2008
Who can score from the 7-8-9 slots?
June 12, 2008
What's better than ERA to measure a pitcher’s effectiveness?
June 5, 2008
Do left-handers hit low pitches better than righties?
May 29, 2008
What does the current MLB HR rate tell us?
May 23, 2008
Who are baseball's top defenders so far this year?
May 13, 2008
Who are the leaders in BS wins?
May 2, 2008
Who is seeing the most pitches per plate appearance?
April 24, 2008
Whose batting slot
is the best in baseball thus far?
April 8, 2008
Do spring training team records matter?
April 2, 2008
Who are this year's possible breakout players
based on spring training numbers?
March 26, 2008
Who were baseball's best bunters in 2007?
March 20, 2008
Who are the projected
batting and pitching leaders for 2008?
March 12, 2008
Who would you rather have—
Hunter, Rowand or Swisher?
March 6, 2008
A Zone of His Own?
February 21, 2008
Why are 45 wins lovely?
February 14, 2008
How stupid can I be?
February 6, 2008
Who will win Super Bowl XLII?
January 30, 2008
Who allows fewer runs: a pitching staff that strikes out a lot or one that doesn't?
January 16, 2008
Worn out his welcome?
January 11, 2008
What is new for the New Year?
December 27, 2007
How will Kosuke Fukudome do in the USA?
December 14, 2007
Who needs a leadoff man?
December 7, 2007
Which team had the best defense in 2007?
November 30, 2007
Is there an adjustment period for players when they change leagues?
November 13, 2007
Can this guy throw, or what?
November 9, 2007
Who are the Fielding Bible Award winners for 2007?
October 31, 2007
It's the Name Game!
October 24, 2007
Which outfielders have robbed hitters of the most home runs?
October 15, 2007
How many teams have won 90 games but allowed more runs than they scored?
October 2, 2007
Should Derek Jeter win his fourth consecutive Gold Glove?
September 27, 2007
Do hitters foul off more pitches with two strikes?
September 13, 2007
Has this ever happened before?
September 6, 2007
Do catchers call for more fastballs with a runner on first?
August 28, 2007
Which pitchers are getting support from their offense this year?
August 22, 2007
Which batting slot gets the most fastballs?
August 17, 2007
Who are the 2007 defensive All-Stars (thus far?)
July 18, 2007
Which division is the best in baseball?
July 13, 2007
How effective is protecting the plate with two strikes?
July 6, 2007
How low can the White Sox go?
June 27, 2007
How well do hitters protect the plate with two strikes?
June 22, 2007
Why are the White Sox dialing 9-1-1?
June 5, 2007
Can Adam Everett lead MLB for the fifth straight season?
May 23, 2007
How far back are the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals?
May 15, 2007
How often do hitters pull flyballs?
May 3, 2007
How often do hitters pull grounders?
April 24, 2007
What is Ryan Theriot’s “little secret”?
April 20, 2007
How much is the temperature affecting scoring?
April 11, 2007
What is the difference between the cactus and grapefruit leagues?
April 4, 2007
Do spring training numbers matter?
March 27, 2007
Which league hits better (if you exclude the number-nine slot?)
March 21, 2007
Who should bat leadoff?
March 15, 2007
Who are the best young players for 2007?
March 7, 2007
Can a horrible second baseman become a great outfielder?
February 28, 2007
Which starting pitchers were let down by their bullpens?
February 22, 2007
What excuses do the Bears (and me) have for losing the Super Bowl?
February 7, 2007
Why is the Bears' magic number twelve?
January 30, 2007
Who will win Super Bowl XLI?
January 23, 2007
Who will win the NFL Conference Championships?
January 17, 2007
What does the Win Share system say about this year's Hall of Fame nominees?
January 10, 2007
What two words are ominous for the Chicago Bears in the postseason?
January 4, 2007
How did each team’s catchers bat in 2006?
December 21, 2006
How significant is the impact of run support on win-loss records?
December 15, 2006
Which teams run the bases best?
December 6, 2006
Where should your best hitters bat?
November 22, 2006
Who are the projected batting and pitching leaders for 2007?
November 9, 2006
Who are the Fielding Bible Award winners for 2006?
November 2, 2006
What are they feeding Joel Zumaya?
October 27, 2006
Who else has a chance at 700 home runs?
October 20, 2006
Does velocity count in the playoffs?
October 4, 2006
Which starting pitchers have turned their season around most dramatically?
September 22, 2006
How “god-like” is the “Greek god of walks”?
September 13, 2006
Which teams have really come on in the second half?
September 7, 2006
Are pitchers who throw harder better?
August 30, 2006
What about bad throws that don't count as errors?
August 24, 2006
Are There More Hard-Throwing Righties Than Lefties?
August 17, 2006
Is the streaking Chase Utley a great hitter on an 0-2 count?
August 3, 2006
Is Ozzie's "Bunting School" really needed?
July 26, 2006
Who's hitting better—National League pitchers or American League pitchers?
July 20, 2006
What happens if they walk, but you don't?
July 7, 2006
Is Livan Hernandez' arm about to fall off?
June 23, 2006
Is every newspaper and website in the country wrong?
June 13, 2006
Which pitchers are the best at holding runners?
June 8, 2006
The fewest RBI of all time?
May 31, 2006
How often does a team miss a sure-fire double play?
May 26, 2006
Can the Dodgers score runs even though they play in one of baseball's worst hitters parks?
May 18, 2006
Are the same pitchers who win the Gold Glove year after year deserving?
May 12, 2006
True or False: No team last in the league in walks has ever won a World Championship.
May 4, 2006
Who are the best first baseman at saving potential throwing errors by their fellow infielders?
April 20, 2006
What do teams with great one-run game records do the next year?
April 13, 2006
How does the White Sox five-man rotation stack up?
April 5, 2006
Who is hot enough this Spring to carry it into the regular season?
March 28, 2006
More pitches per plate appearance equals more runs - - true or false?
March 22, 2006
Who wins the 2005 Flat Bat Award?
March 16, 2006
Is Derek Jeter overrated?
March 3, 2006
How effective were fifth starters in 2005?
February 22, 2006
Who are the best young hitters in baseball?
February 9, 2006
Can you predict the Super Bowl winner?
February 1, 2006
Who has the best infield defense?
January 27, 2006
Who had the best outfield defense last year?
January 18, 2006
Who threw the most 100+ MPH pitches?
January 6, 2006
The best defense of all time?
December 21, 2005
How deep is starting pitching in baseball?
December 14, 2005
Are there fewer HR since steroid testing began? (A Reprise)
December 7, 2005
What's so magic about 100 pitches?
November 23, 2005
Who Were the Best Relief Pitchers in 2005?
November 16, 2005
Did the White Sox win because of "Small-Ball"?(A Reprise)
November 2, 2005
How often does a team win when they're up 2-0 in the World Series?
October 25, 2005
How does Albert Pujols compare to other players at age 25 throughout baseball history?
October 18, 2005
Guillen vs. Scioscia - - Who pulls his starter and who likes to stay with them?
October 12, 2005
What's Corey Patterson's place in Cub history?
September 29, 2005
How do major league hitters fare against curveballs?
September 22, 2005
Which players have hurt their clubs most when missing games this year?
September 14, 2005
How do the 2005 White Sox compare to the last World Series team in Chicago?
September 1, 2005
How rare is Scott Podsednik's drop-off to zero home runs (in 383 at-bats) after having hit 12 last year?
August 26, 2005
Does hitting lots of HR mean your average HR distance is long?
August 11, 2005
Which run in a game is most important?
August 4, 2005
Cubs pitchers aren't pitching that well, but can they hit?
July 22, 2005
What is preventing Derrek Lee from leading all the Triple Crown categories at the All-Star break?
July 14, 2005
Is Derek Jeter Mr. Clutch while A-Rod only puts up the big numbers when it doesn't count?
July 7, 2005
Are there fewer HRs since steroid testing began?
June 30, 2005
Do closers lose intensity in non-save situations?
June 23, 2005
Are the White Sox Winning Because of “Small-Ball”?
June 16, 2005
Does two-out hitting really mean anything?
June 9, 2005
How can the injuries to the Cubs' starters be a good thing?
June 2, 2005
What's the 30-60-90 rule of saves?
May 19, 2005
Does a sacrifice bunt have any value?
May 5, 2005
Is the percentage of runs scored via
home runs down this year?
April 28, 2005
Can a team last in on-base percentage get to the playoffs?
April 21, 2005
Intentional walks—what's the over/under? On average, are they called over or under once per game?
April 14, 2005
Who are the projected batting and pitching leaders for 2005?
April 7, 2005
Is Spring Training performance a good predictor
for the regular season?
March 30, 2005
How do today's sluggers compare against yesterdays?
March 23, 2005
Are throws to first to hold the runner a waste of time?
March 16, 2005
Who's better—Alex Rodriguez or Bobby Abreu?
March 9, 2005
Who are the top 10 projected hitters for the 2005 season?
March 2, 2005
Can you recognize this pattern? Bako, Bako, Blanco, Blanco, Bako, Blanco
February 23, 2005
Did the Cubs and Sox improve their relief staffs in the offseason?
February 16, 2005
How do the skills of Japanese hitting stars translate to Major League Baseball?
January 26, 2005
Who wins the 2004 Flat Bat Award?
January 19, 2005
Who leads the NBA in turnovers/minutes played?
January 12, 2005
How does newly-elected Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg rank against his fellow second basemen in the hall?
January 5, 2005
Which happens more often in baseball: a foul ball or a called strike?
December 29, 2004
How effective are fifth starters in a pitching rotation?
December 22, 2004
Is it conditioning or is it steroids?
December 15, 2004
Was the 2004 National League All-Star team selected well by the fans?
December 8, 2004
Was the 2004 American League All-Star team selected well by the fans?
December 1, 2004
How will Matt Clement's replacement, Glendon Rusch, fare for the Chicago Cubs?
November 24, 2004
How much scoring is done in the NFL by the defense and special teams?
November 17, 2004
What would happen if the Gold Glove team played the team of Silver Sluggers?
November 10, 2004
Roger Clemens went 18-4 for the Astros—how his season compare with his previous five seasons with the Yankees?
November 3, 2004
Are the two best teams in baseball represented in this year's World Series?
October 27, 2004
What are the chances of a team coming back from being down 0-3 to win a best of seven series?
October 20, 2004
Who scores more runs, a team that strikes out a lot, or one that doesn't strike out?
October 13, 2004
Is quality start really a quality stat?
October 6, 2004
How often does a pitcher hit “better” than he pitches during a season?
September 29, 2004
Has there been anyone since Babe Ruth to have a career batting average higher than his career ERA?
September 22, 2004
Which parks are the easiest in which to hit home runs?
September 15, 2004
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