Miguel Cabrera, American League MVP?
August 20, 2010
As we approach September, it’s time to start considering MVP candidates. In
the American League, Miguel Cabrera is a popular choice because of his offensive
production this year. Here are Cabrera's triple-crown stats, compared to a
couple of other MVP candidates:
|
American League MVP Candidates
|
|
Player |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
|
Miguel Cabrera |
.340 |
31 |
100 |
|
Josh Hamilton |
.353 |
26 |
81 |
|
Robinson Cano |
.325 |
24 |
78 |
Looking at this, most people would give the nod to Cabrera. But let's go a
little deeper.
As you might guess, we want to look at their defense. Miguel Cabrera is a
defensive liability. He has cost his team nine runs defensively, based on the
Defensive Runs Saved system we devised. Josh Hamilton has split time between
left field and center field and has been an average outfielder, saving two runs
with his defense. Robinson Cano’s defense at second base has been quite good
having saved 14 runs so far this year.
But let's go still deeper. One more element we need to consider is the
importance of the defensive position they play. A middle infielder is far more
important defensively than a first baseman. We have a way to measure this,
called the positional adjustment, and in this case we credit Cano with 23 runs
for playing second base compared to nine runs for Miguel.
Now let’s put it all together. Instead of using a player’s triple-crown
stats, a more complete way to measure overall offensive production is Runs
Created, Bill James’ estimate of the number of a team’s runs created by each
individual hitter.
Stolen base ability is included in Runs Created, but it doesn’t measure
running on the basepaths other than stolen bases. We have a metric called
Baserunning Runs which takes into account how often a baserunner takes an extra
base on hits, how often he is thrown out, how often he advances on wild pitches
and passed balls, scores on a sacrifice fly, etc.
We can add up a player’s offensive Runs Created, Baserunning Runs, Defensive
Runs Saved, and the positional adjustment to get a complete picture of what a
player is worth. We call that picture Total Runs.
Here are the leader boards for the American and National leagues in Total
Runs for 2010.
| American Leauge Total Runs Leaders
|
|
Runs |
Baserunning |
Runs |
Positional |
Total |
| Player |
Created |
Runs |
Saved |
Adjustment |
Runs |
| Robinson Cano |
94 |
1 |
14 |
23 |
132 |
| Josh Hamilton |
105 |
1 |
4 |
14 |
124 |
| Evan Longoria |
86 |
4 |
14 |
19 |
123 |
| Adrian Beltre |
83 |
1 |
12 |
18 |
114 |
| Miguel Cabrera |
106 |
3 |
-9 |
9 |
109 |
| National Leauge Total Runs Leaders
|
|
Runs |
Baserunning |
Runs |
Positional |
Total |
| Player |
Created |
Runs |
Saved |
Adjustment |
Runs |
| Ryan Zimmerman |
81 |
-1 |
22 |
16 |
118 |
| Joey Votto |
97 |
3 |
6 |
9 |
115 |
| Albert Pujols |
96 |
0 |
2 |
9 |
107 |
| Matt Holliday |
82 |
3 |
8 |
13 |
106 |
| Chris Young |
76 |
-1 |
9 |
21 |
105 |
Despite his impressive triple crown numbers, Miguel Cabrera is only fifth in
the American League in Total Runs. He currently has 106 Runs Created, tied with
Josh Hamilton for the overall MLB lead, but his baserunning, his defense and his
value for playing first base only add another three runs for a Total Runs total
of 109. Instead, Robinson Cano is the top player in the American League, with
Hamilton and Evan Longoria close behind. In the National League, the Nationals’
Ryan Zimmerman leads in Total Runs thanks to his stellar defensive performance.
Joey Votto trails Zimmerman by three runs.
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