Looking at this, most people would give the nod to Cabrera. But let's go a
little deeper.

As you might guess, we want to look at their defense. Miguel Cabrera is a
defensive liability. He has cost his team nine runs defensively, based on the
Defensive Runs Saved system we devised. Josh Hamilton has split time between
left field and center field and has been an average outfielder, saving two runs
with his defense. Robinson Cano’s defense at second base has been quite good
having saved 14 runs so far this year.

But let's go still deeper. One more element we need to consider is the
importance of the defensive position they play. A middle infielder is far more
important defensively than a first baseman. We have a way to measure this,
called the positional adjustment, and in this case we credit Cano with 23 runs
for playing second base compared to nine runs for Miguel.

Now let’s put it all together. Instead of using a player’s triple-crown
stats, a more complete way to measure overall offensive production is Runs
Created, Bill James’ estimate of the number of a team’s runs created by each
individual hitter.

Stolen base ability is included in Runs Created, but it doesn’t measure
running on the basepaths other than stolen bases. We have a metric called
Baserunning Runs which takes into account how often a baserunner takes an extra
base on hits, how often he is thrown out, how often he advances on wild pitches
and passed balls, scores on a sacrifice fly, etc.

We can add up a player’s offensive Runs Created, Baserunning Runs, Defensive
Runs Saved, and the positional adjustment to get a complete picture of what a
player is worth. We call that picture Total Runs.

Here are the leader boards for the American and National leagues in Total
Runs for 2010.

Despite his impressive triple crown numbers, Miguel Cabrera is only fifth in
the American League in Total Runs. He currently has 106 Runs Created, tied with
Josh Hamilton for the overall MLB lead, but his baserunning, his defense and his
value for playing first base only add another three runs for a Total Runs total
of 109. Instead, Robinson Cano is the top player in the American League, with
Hamilton and Evan Longoria close behind. In the National League, the Nationals’
Ryan Zimmerman leads in Total Runs thanks to his stellar defensive performance.
Joey Votto trails Zimmerman by three runs.

Follow us on Twitter!

Our Good Plays/Misplays data (see definitions below) also confirms that Hunter has lost his golden touch. So far in 2010, Torii Hunter has committed only one error, but he also has 24 Misplays to go along with that. We credit him with 14 Good Plays. This means that he has made 11 more misplays and errors than good plays. This is one of the worst totals in all of baseball among center fielders. This is surprising considering that both Hunter and Adam Jones (worst in baseball with 16 more errors and misplays than good plays) won Gold Gloves last year. Neither seems to be making a strong case to repeat as a Gold Glove winner. Here are the Net Good Plays/Misplays leaders and trailers in centerfield:

*Net Good Plays/Misplays is the number of Misplays and Errors subtracted from the number of Good Fielding Plays

Through only a week of play, Bourjos has managed to make three Good Fielding Plays while avoiding a single Misplay or Error. In only eight games, Bourjos has saved five runs with his defense in center field. Obviously this is a small sample to take into account, but think of it like a rookie who hits .400 with three home runs in his first week in the majors. He’s unlikely to maintain that pace, but it’s a good sign for the future of the Angels’ outfield.

Definitions:




A Defensive Misplay (DM) is recorded when a fielder does something identifiably wrong, such as losing a fly ball in the sun or missing the cutoff man, and an opposing batter reaches base or a runner takes an extra base as a result. There are currently 54 types of defensive misplays we record. We often group Defensive Misplays and Errors (DME) together because they’re both detrimental fielding plays.

We award a Good Fielding Play (GFP) when a fielder makes a play that we wouldn’t ordinarily expect him to make, and the action has the positive consequence of recording an unexpected out or preventing baserunner advancement. GFPs are not necessarily plays on which the player looks good making the play—diving or spinning. Scooped throws out of the dirt and robbed home runs are two of the 27 different types of Good Fielding Plays. Combined, GFPs and DMEs give us another perspective on a player’s defensive performance.

Make sure to follow us on
Twitter!

Now, let’s look at the best pitchers in the last two months:

Regular baseball fans know about many or most of the players on the first
list. Players like Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, and Phil Hughes got
off to great starts, earning them attention. These great starts stick in your
mind. It's human nature. But maybe the more interesting names are the guys on
the second list. Did you know that over the last two months, Mat Latos and
Trevor Cahill are the top two pitchers in the league in opponent OPS? Did you
know Gavin Floyd had the second best ERA over June and July, behind only Josh
Johnson? In the last couple of months all of these pitchers have pitched at an
exceptional level, just like the guys who did the same in the first two months
of the season. But there's no question that it's still the players on the first
list that are getting the most attention.

My research crew and I are now on Twitter. Follow us at href="http://twitter.com/fieldingbible">www.twitter.com/fieldingbible!

The thing about Carlos Marmol is that he is basically unhittable. The batting
averages against him since 2007 are incredibly paltry, .169 in 2007, .135 in
‘08, .170 in 2009 and .148 this year. The only way to beat him is to hope that
he is wild. Let’s take a look at every game in which Marmol has appeared since
2007 and we’ll break down his first ten pitches into the total number of balls
and strikes. What we’ll try to do is see if Marmol’s performance can be
predicted based how wild he is. We can
hypothesize that the more balls he throws in the first 10 pitches, the less
effective he will be. Our measure of effectiveness will be opposing OPS
for at-bats that begin after the 10th pitch in each of Marmol’s
appearances from 2007 through last night. Here is the opponent OPS based on how
many balls Marmol throws in his first ten pitches.

Our hypothesis was incorrect: 
Marmol's first ten pitches aren't indicative of things to come. The good news
for Cubs fans is that regardless of the number of balls thrown in the first ten
pitches, Marmol is remarkably effective and consistent.   

Three of last year’s Fielding Bible Award winners are the leaders at their
respective positions at the half way point. Ryan Zimmerman is a good bet to
eclipse his total of 22 Runs Saved last year. He is already at 16.

The corner outfielders remain the same as well, as Carl Crawford and Ichiro
Suzuki continue to keep anything and everything from falling in left and right
field. Crawford is first in Plus/Minus among left fielders and has the second
highest Outfield Arm Runs Saved total.

Marlon Byrd is, perhaps surprisingly, the leader in centerfield. Before this
season, Byrd’s highest season Runs Saved total was eight back in 2006 with
Washington. He has already surpassed that and then some.

At first base, our leader is Daric Barton, who is five Runs Saved ahead of
second place Russell Branyan. Four-time Fielding Bible Award winner Albert
Pujols is far behind the pack at a mere two Runs Saved during the season’s first
half.

Two years ago, Robinson Cano cost the Yankees an estimated 13 runs with his
weak glove. Last year, he improved that to +7. This year, he has saved an
estimated 16 runs and is the top second baseman in baseball so far. He may be
the most improved defensive player in all of baseball, a testament to the hard
work he has put in at the keystone.

Yunel Escobar is our All-Star defensive shortstop. His 21 Runs Saved is the
most in baseball at any position. Escobar may be frustrating Braves fans with a
disappointing offensive year, but his defensive performance has largely
compensated for his struggles at the plate.

The battery for our All-Star team is Ricky Romero from the Blue Jays and
Miguel Olivo from the Rockies. Olivo has thrown out 44 percent (18 of 41)
potential basestealers, the best rate of his career.