Nevertheless, based on the remaining events, we still predict that Canada will come on strong. In fact, we predict them to win the most medals in the remaining six days (15, compared to 9 for USA and 7 for Germany). Our projected final totals at this point are:

While we fell short on our original projection for Canada, our original United States projection (10 golds and 33 total medals) is still right on the button.

Can Canada use their home field advantage? As we did two years ago in projecting the medal counts for the 2008 Games, I teamed up with Matthew Futterman and The Wall Street Journal to project medal counts for 86 events (click here for the details). A total of 258 overall medals. We took into account recent national and international competitions in every Olympic sport and conducted many interviews with experts. Then, instead of an absolute first-, second- and third-place finisher in each event, we assigned probabilities to the top medal contenders.

For example, in Hockey, the usual picks are Canada for the gold, Russia for silver and the Czech Republic for bronze. The U.S. has an outside chance for a medal. However, when we do our projections we assign probabilities like this:

We have Canada as the favorite to win the gold, but despite the fact they are the best team, we feel it is more likely that one of the other countries will win. We feel they are a certainty to win one of the three medals, but not necessarily a gold. USA is not shown for a medal in hockey in regular projections, but we give them a chance. And that chance counts in our projection.

We then add up all the probabilities to determine the projected medal counts for each country. Here are our projections for the top five countries:

The answer is yes. For the first time in the history of the Games, Canada will take home the most medals, and the most golds. Germany won in 2006 with 11 golds and 29 total medals and we have them pretty much repeating their performance. But Canada's home ice and snow advantage will push them over the top, allowing them to surpass their 2006 performance in Turin, Italy of 7 gold medals and 24 total. After coming in third in Turin in the medal count (with USA second), Canada will switch places with Germany in 2010.

Using the probabilities for each event, we ran 1,000 simulations. Canada took the most medals 772 times, USA 240 times and Germany 84 times (including ties). It's looking good for the host country.

However, Buehrle also excelled in the often-overlooked part of pitcher defense: controlling the running game. Buehrle only allowed four stolen bases in 213 innings, but he didn’t get any help from his catchers. Buehrle caught four runners stealing without a throw to the plate, and picked off four additional runners, tops in the league. All said, this adds up to four Runs Saved for the holding runenrs component:

Over the past seven seasons, Buehrle has led the league four times and has totaled a remarkable 27 Stolen Base Runs Saved by controlling the running game.

Carl Pavano is the other extreme. Pavano has rated below average in six out of the past seven seasons costing his teams an estimated ten runs (-10 Runs Saved); the only thing that kept Pavano from rating below average in 2006 was an injury which forced him to miss the entire year. AL Central baserunners were thrilled to see Pavano re-sign with Minnesota this offseason. The worst pitcher at holding runners over the last seven seasons was Tim Wakefield with -10 RUns Saved.

In my Super Bowl prediction system there are 12 different indicators, each one taken by itself predicts the Super Bowl winner 56% to 69% of the time. Taken collectively, the indicators have an even better track record. The system favors the team that wins the most indicators and it has predicted 15 of the last 19 Super Bowl winners. This year the prediction system picks the New Orleans Saints to win a Super Bowl in their first appearance in history.

However...

The margin is the slimmest of margins. The system has the Saints winning 7 of the 12 indicators. That goes against the grain given that the Indianapolis Colts are favored in Las Vegas. I like that. The system has a strong track record going against the line. But the prediction system has not performed well when a team wins less than eight of the indicators. Going back 19 years to 1990, the system is only 3-2 on games with less than eight indicators going to the favored team. Going back all-time, the system is 6-7 with less than eight indicators.

Plus, if we had gone to the tiebreaker (when six indicators go to each team), the tiebreaker would favor the Colts. The tiebreaker gives the nod to the team with previous Super Bowl experience. In 17 Super Bowls where one team has been there and the other hasn't, the experienced team has won 13 times.

For record keeping, if the Saints win, the system will also notch a victory. If the Colts win, the system loses. But I learned my lesson two years ago when the system favored the Patriots with 7 of the 12 indicators and the Giants won. I am calling it a toss-up.

Each indicator is shown here. Interestingly, while the system favors the Saints overall, the three best indicators (the bottom three) each favor the Colts.

There are five defensive indicators, four offensive ones, and three based on overall stats. The strongest indicators overall are the defensive ones.

This is an example of over 300 nuggets from the Bill James Gold Mine 2010, coming out in March. Here's another nugget:

Why Does This Always Happen to Cleveland?



The Indians lost their last 15 road games of the season, the most consecutive road losses by any major league team to end a season since the infamous 1899 Cleveland Spiders.