USA on Track (and on Snow)

February 23, 2010

With six days left, Canada has fallen too far behind. Before the Olympics started it looked like they had a good shot at winning the medal race. But the United States has risen to the occasion and is in the lead, with Germany coming on strong the last couple of days. Vancouver's proximity to the United States gives the US an element of the home field advantage as well. Here is the medal situation as of this morning:

2010 Winter Olympics Medal Count
Country Golds Total Medals
United States 7 25
Germany 7 21
Norway 6 14
Russia 2 11
Canada 5 10

Nevertheless, based on the remaining events, we still predict that Canada will come on strong. In fact, we predict them to win the most medals in the remaining six days (15, compared to 9 for USA and 7 for Germany). Our projected final totals at this point are:

2010 Winter Olympics Medal Projected Totals
Country Golds Total Medals
United States 10 34
Germany 9 28
Canada 10 25
Norway 8 20
Austria 5 16
Russia 4 16

While we fell short on our original projection for Canada, our original United States projection (10 golds and 33 total medals) is still right on the button.



Archived Stats

USA on Track (and on Snow)
February 23, 2010


Can Canada win the most Olympic medals for the first time in history?
February 12, 2010


The Missing Ingredient of Pitcher Defense
February 5, 2010


The Super Bowl Prediction System -- Super Bowl XLIV is a toss-up
January 28, 2010


Going First to Third
January 19, 2010


The Red Sox Believe in Defense
January 12, 2010


Aaron Harang's New Year's Resolution
December 30, 2009


The Mariner and the Tiger
December 18, 2009


Do #1 starters face tougher opposing starters?
December 8, 2009


Who are baseball’s best and worst baserunners?
November 25, 2009


Did Adam Jones and Torii Hunter deserve Gold Gloves?
November 20, 2009


Who are the Fielding Bible Award winners for 2009?
November 2, 2009


The Tex-Factor
October 28, 2009


Predicting the Unpredictable No-Hitter
October 21, 2009


Which players have performed the best in the postseason?
October 6, 2009


Who are the MVP leaders based on Total Runs?
September 28, 2009


Who are the Rookie of the Year leaders based on Total Runs?
September 17, 2009


Catcher Pickoff Leaders
September 11, 2009


Are throws to first to hold the runner a waste of time?
August 31, 2009


The Latest Scoop
August 26, 2009


How many scoops?
August 3, 2009


A tribute to Jim Rice and Rickey Henderson
July 28, 2009


Mark Buehrle's Perfecto
July 24, 2009


Who are the Defensive All-Stars?
July 15, 2009


Team Defensive Runs Saved update
July 7, 2009


Who are the top base-stealing teams of 2009?
June 29, 2009


Who are the top defenders of 2009?
June 12, 2009


What's wrong with Big Papi?
June 5, 2009


Something in the water in Chi-town?
May 26, 2009


Has defense played a part in the Rangers' first place showing thus far this year?
May 22, 2009


Are pitchers hitting batters more often?
May 15, 2009


Soriano bats leadoff—once and for all
April 28, 2009


The 0-2 nightmare
April 22, 2009


How do we explain the Rays' remarkable transformation?
April 13, 2009


Which players might go up a notch this year based on their Spring Training statistics?
April 3, 2009


Does the "Ted Williams Shift" make sense?
March 27, 2009


Who are the most valuable half-and-half players?
March 20, 2009


The most significant discovery of my career
March 12, 2009


Who are the top 10 projected hitters for the 2009 season?
March 6, 2009


Who has the best outfield defense?
February 27, 2009


How often does a leadoff man come up with no one on base?
February 19, 2009


What Is A-Rod's Favorite Toy?
February 12, 2009


An 84% chance of predicting the Super Bowl winner?
January 28, 2009


How good is Jake Peavy?
January 14, 2009


Top ten reasonsto like what the Cubs are doing this winter
January 7, 2009


Can the Bears overcome the odds?
December 23, 2008


What is it with Chad Bradford anyways?
December 11, 2008


Which is the best situation to score?
December 3, 2008


Thanksgiving in Chicago
November 26, 2008


Michael Young, Gold Glove shortstop?
November 18, 2008


What about Nate McLouth's Gold Glove?
November 14, 2008


Have the home run parks changed in the last five years?
November 6, 2008


Who are the Fielding Bible Award winners for 2008?
October 30, 2008


Is scoring lower in the postseason?
October 15, 2008


Who are the best teams in this year's playoffs?
October 1, 2008


Is it easy to score a runner from third with less than two outs?
September 25, 2008


Who are the best fielding pitchers?
September 18, 2008


Are K-Rod's saves tougher than Thigpen's were in 1990?
September 5, 2008


What’s the toughest save in baseball?
August 29, 2008


Are long at-bats more productive than short ones?
August 22, 2008


What country will win the most medals in Beijing?
August 8, 2008


Who uses their closers in tough situations?
August 1, 2008


Who are baseball's best baserunners this year?
July 23, 2008


Who has the cannons in the outfield so far this year?
July 18, 2008


Which All-Stars earned the trip to New York?
July 10, 2008


Is it harder to steal on lefties?
June 27, 2008


Who can score from the 7-8-9 slots?
June 12, 2008


What's better than ERA to measure a pitcher’s effectiveness?
June 5, 2008


Do left-handers hit low pitches better than righties?
May 29, 2008


What does the current MLB HR rate tell us?
May 23, 2008


Who are baseball's top defenders so far this year?
May 13, 2008


Who are the leaders in BS wins?
May 2, 2008


Who is seeing the most pitches per plate appearance?
April 24, 2008


Whose batting slot is the best in baseball thus far?
April 8, 2008


Do spring training team records matter?
April 2, 2008


Who are this year's possible breakout players based on spring training numbers?
March 26, 2008


Who were baseball's best bunters in 2007?
March 20, 2008


Who are the projected batting and pitching leaders for 2008?
March 12, 2008


Who would you rather have—Hunter, Rowand or Swisher?
March 6, 2008


A Zone of His Own?
February 21, 2008


Why are 45 wins lovely?
February 14, 2008


How stupid can I be?
February 6, 2008


Who will win Super Bowl XLII?
January 30, 2008


Who allows fewer runs: a pitching staff that strikes out a lot or one that doesn't?
January 16, 2008


Worn out his welcome?
January 11, 2008


What is new for the New Year?
December 27, 2007


How will Kosuke Fukudome do in the USA?
December 14, 2007


Who needs a leadoff man?
December 7, 2007


Which team had the best defense in 2007?
November 30, 2007


Is there an adjustment period for players when they change leagues?
November 13, 2007


Can this guy throw, or what?
November 9, 2007


Who are the Fielding Bible Award winners for 2007?
October 31, 2007


It's the Name Game!
October 24, 2007


Which outfielders have robbed hitters of the most home runs?
October 15, 2007


How many teams have won 90 games but allowed more runs than they scored?
October 2, 2007


Should Derek Jeter win his fourth consecutive Gold Glove?
September 27, 2007


Do hitters foul off more pitches with two strikes?
September 13, 2007


Has this ever happened before?
September 6, 2007


Do catchers call for more fastballs with a runner on first?
August 28, 2007


Which pitchers are getting support from their offense this year?
August 22, 2007


Which batting slot gets the most fastballs?
August 17, 2007


Who are the 2007 defensive All-Stars (thus far?)
July 18, 2007


Which division is the best in baseball?
July 13, 2007


How effective is protecting the plate with two strikes?
July 6, 2007


How low can the White Sox go?
June 27, 2007


How well do hitters protect the plate with two strikes?
June 22, 2007


Why are the White Sox dialing 9-1-1?
June 5, 2007


Can Adam Everett lead MLB for the fifth straight season?
May 23, 2007


How far back are the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals?
May 15, 2007


How often do hitters pull flyballs?
May 3, 2007


How often do hitters pull grounders?
April 24, 2007


What is Ryan Theriot’s “little secret”?
April 20, 2007


How much is the temperature affecting scoring?
April 11, 2007


What is the difference between the cactus and grapefruit leagues?
April 4, 2007


Do spring training numbers matter?
March 27, 2007


Which league hits better (if you exclude the number-nine slot?)
March 21, 2007


Who should bat leadoff?
March 15, 2007


Who are the best young players for 2007?
March 7, 2007


Can a horrible second baseman become a great outfielder?
February 28, 2007


Which starting pitchers were let down by their bullpens?
February 22, 2007


What excuses do the Bears (and me) have for losing the Super Bowl?
February 7, 2007


Why is the Bears' magic number twelve?
January 30, 2007


Who will win Super Bowl XLI?
January 23, 2007


Who will win the NFL Conference Championships?
January 17, 2007


What does the Win Share system say about this year's Hall of Fame nominees?
January 10, 2007


What two words are ominous for the Chicago Bears in the postseason?
January 4, 2007


How did each team’s catchers bat in 2006?
December 21, 2006


How significant is the impact of run support on win-loss records?
December 15, 2006


Which teams run the bases best?
December 6, 2006


Where should your best hitters bat?
November 22, 2006


Who are the projected batting and pitching leaders for 2007?
November 9, 2006


Who are the Fielding Bible Award winners for 2006?
November 2, 2006


What are they feeding Joel Zumaya?
October 27, 2006


Who else has a chance at 700 home runs?
October 20, 2006


Does velocity count in the playoffs?
October 4, 2006


Which starting pitchers have turned their season around most dramatically?
September 22, 2006


How “god-like” is the “Greek god of walks”?
September 13, 2006


Which teams have really come on in the second half?
September 7, 2006


Are pitchers who throw harder better?
August 30, 2006


What about bad throws that don't count as errors?
August 24, 2006


Are There More Hard-Throwing Righties Than Lefties?
August 17, 2006


Is the streaking Chase Utley a great hitter on an 0-2 count?
August 3, 2006


Is Ozzie's "Bunting School" really needed?
July 26, 2006


Who's hitting better—National League pitchers or American League pitchers?
July 20, 2006


What happens if they walk, but you don't?
July 7, 2006


Is Livan Hernandez' arm about to fall off?
June 23, 2006


Is every newspaper and website in the country wrong?
June 13, 2006


Which pitchers are the best at holding runners?
June 8, 2006


The fewest RBI of all time?
May 31, 2006


How often does a team miss a sure-fire double play?
May 26, 2006


Can the Dodgers score runs even though they play in one of baseball's worst hitters parks?
May 18, 2006


Are the same pitchers who win the Gold Glove year after year deserving?
May 12, 2006


True or False: No team last in the league in walks has ever won a World Championship.
May 4, 2006


Who are the best first baseman at saving potential throwing errors by their fellow infielders?
April 20, 2006


What do teams with great one-run game records do the next year?
April 13, 2006


How does the White Sox five-man rotation stack up?
April 5, 2006


Who is hot enough this Spring to carry it into the regular season?
March 28, 2006


More pitches per plate appearance equals more runs - - true or false?
March 22, 2006


Who wins the 2005 Flat Bat Award?
March 16, 2006


Is Derek Jeter overrated?
March 3, 2006


How effective were fifth starters in 2005?
February 22, 2006


Who are the best young hitters in baseball?
February 9, 2006


Can you predict the Super Bowl winner?
February 1, 2006


Who has the best infield defense?
January 27, 2006


Who had the best outfield defense last year?
January 18, 2006


Who threw the most 100+ MPH pitches?
January 6, 2006


The best defense of all time?
December 21, 2005


How deep is starting pitching in baseball?
December 14, 2005


Are there fewer HR since steroid testing began? (A Reprise)
December 7, 2005


What's so magic about 100 pitches?
November 23, 2005


Who Were the Best Relief Pitchers in 2005?
November 16, 2005


Did the White Sox win because of "Small-Ball"?(A Reprise)
November 2, 2005


How often does a team win when they're up 2-0 in the World Series?
October 25, 2005


How does Albert Pujols compare to other players at age 25 throughout baseball history?
October 18, 2005


Guillen vs. Scioscia - - Who pulls his starter and who likes to stay with them?
October 12, 2005


What's Corey Patterson's place in Cub history?
September 29, 2005


How do major league hitters fare against curveballs?
September 22, 2005


Which players have hurt their clubs most when missing games this year?
September 14, 2005


How do the 2005 White Sox compare to the last World Series team in Chicago?
September 1, 2005


How rare is Scott Podsednik's drop-off to zero home runs (in 383 at-bats) after having hit 12 last year?
August 26, 2005


Does hitting lots of HR mean your average HR distance is long?
August 11, 2005


Which run in a game is most important?
August 4, 2005


Cubs pitchers aren't pitching that well, but can they hit?
July 22, 2005


What is preventing Derrek Lee from leading all the Triple Crown categories at the All-Star break?
July 14, 2005


Is Derek Jeter Mr. Clutch while A-Rod only puts up the big numbers when it doesn't count?
July 7, 2005


Are there fewer HRs since steroid testing began?
June 30, 2005


Do closers lose intensity in non-save situations?
June 23, 2005


Are the White Sox Winning Because of “Small-Ball”?
June 16, 2005


Does two-out hitting really mean anything?
June 9, 2005


How can the injuries to the Cubs' starters be a good thing?
June 2, 2005


What's the 30-60-90 rule of saves?
May 19, 2005


Does a sacrifice bunt have any value?
May 5, 2005


Is the percentage of runs scored via home runs down this year?
April 28, 2005


Can a team last in on-base percentage get to the playoffs?
April 21, 2005


Intentional walks—what's the over/under? On average, are they called over or under once per game?
April 14, 2005


Who are the projected batting and pitching leaders for 2005?
April 7, 2005


Is Spring Training performance a good predictor for the regular season?
March 30, 2005


How do today's sluggers compare against yesterdays?
March 23, 2005


Are throws to first to hold the runner a waste of time?
March 16, 2005


Who's better—Alex Rodriguez or Bobby Abreu?
March 9, 2005


Who are the top 10 projected hitters for the 2005 season?
March 2, 2005


Can you recognize this pattern? Bako, Bako, Blanco, Blanco, Bako, Blanco
February 23, 2005


Did the Cubs and Sox improve their relief staffs in the offseason?
February 16, 2005


How do the skills of Japanese hitting stars translate to Major League Baseball?
January 26, 2005


Who wins the 2004 Flat Bat Award?
January 19, 2005


Who leads the NBA in turnovers/minutes played?
January 12, 2005


How does newly-elected Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg rank against his fellow second basemen in the hall?
January 5, 2005


Which happens more often in baseball: a foul ball or a called strike?
December 29, 2004


How effective are fifth starters in a pitching rotation?
December 22, 2004


Is it conditioning or is it steroids?
December 15, 2004


Was the 2004 National League All-Star team selected well by the fans?
December 8, 2004


Was the 2004 American League All-Star team selected well by the fans?
December 1, 2004


How will Matt Clement's replacement, Glendon Rusch, fare for the Chicago Cubs?
November 24, 2004


How much scoring is done in the NFL by the defense and special teams?
November 17, 2004


What would happen if the Gold Glove team played the team of Silver Sluggers?
November 10, 2004


Roger Clemens went 18-4 for the Astros—how his season compare with his previous five seasons with the Yankees?
November 3, 2004


Are the two best teams in baseball represented in this year's World Series?
October 27, 2004


What are the chances of a team coming back from being down 0-3 to win a best of seven series?
October 20, 2004


Who scores more runs, a team that strikes out a lot, or one that doesn't strike out?
October 13, 2004


Is quality start really a quality stat?
October 6, 2004


How often does a pitcher hit “better” than he pitches during a season?
September 29, 2004


Has there been anyone since Babe Ruth to have a career batting average higher than his career ERA?
September 22, 2004


Which parks are the easiest in which to hit home runs?
September 15, 2004