A Strike on Every Pitch?

If Kyle Lohse was pitching to Jose Altuve with Jonathon Lucroy behind the plate and Bill Miller umping, would every pitch be called a strike? Not quite, but this combination would produce one of the highest percentages of called strikes on borderline pitches according to Baseball Info Solutions’ Strike Zone Plus/Minus System. Based on their tendencies from 2012-2014, that combination would turn a pitch with a 50 percent chance of being called a strike with four neutral participants into a pitch with a 56.4 percent chance of being called a strike.

Here are those parties’ Strike Zone Runs Saved totals from the 2012-2014 seasons:

Conversely, Jordan Lyles pitching to Dustin Pedroia with Kurt Suzuki catching and Paul Schrieber umping might result in a walk every time! OK, once again, not quite, but those four are among the most extreme in earning fewer strikes than expected. On that same 50/50 pitch, they would earn a strike call only 44.3 percent of the time. Compared to the extreme strike earners from above, these four would earn a strike 27 percent (56.4 percent divided by 44.3 percent minus 1.0) less often on borderline pitches.

Here are their totals from 2012-2014:

Our Strike Zone Runs Saved component of Defensive Runs Saved converts extra strikes and balls into run values based on the difference in run expectancy between a called ball and a called strike in a neutral count. That and all of the Strike Zone Runs Saved methodology is fully explained in The Fielding Bible—Volume IV, which is available now.