AL Central – Defense-Independent Standings

The Kansas City Royals have the best record in the American League, and similar to last season when they made an unexpected run to the World Series, defense has been their biggest separator. Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon have combined to save the team 20 runs according to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), and every infield and outfield starter has been a positive defensive contributor so far this season. That advantage has helped them build a 3.5-game lead in the AL Central.

Meanwhile, the rest of the division has been just as compelling as the Royals defensively, some teams because of surprisingly good defensive play and some teams because of surprisingly bad defensive play. More than any other division in baseball, the AL Central illustrates just how important defense can be to overall team success. To demonstrate, we’ve created hypothetical standings for the division by substituting neutral defensive numbers (i.e. an average defense) in place of each team’s actual DRS totals. Doing so significantly alters the standings.

Those won-lost adjustments are based on an approximate value of 1 win per 10 runs saved. Expressed differently, the Royals have gained approximately four wins due to their defensive excellence this season, which is a nine-win swing over the last-place White Sox, whose defense has cost them about five wins.

In this hypothetical world of average defenses, the White Sox would leapfrog the Indians and Tigers while falling short of the Royals by mere percentage points. The White Sox have myriad defensive problems. Avisail Garcia, Adam Eaton, Alexei Ramirez, and Micah Johnson have each cost the team eight or more runs this season, and the pitching staff has been the worst defensively at the position in the AL.

The Twins have shocked many in the baseball world with their actual results this season. With neutral defense, their standing would be even better. Most of the team’s defensive problems are due to two players. Danny Santana, now back in the minors, has cost them nine runs at shortstop, which is in sharp contrast to his defensive success in 2014 in the outfield. And Torii Hunter has cost them six runs in right field, continuing his recent trend of declining defense as he approaches 40 years old.

The Indians and Tigers show more muted changes than the White Sox, but those changes are enough to flip-flop them in the standings. After having a defense that cost the team 61 runs in 2014, the Tigers have enjoyed the biggest defensive improvement in the AL this season. Those improvements run the gamut. Jose Iglesias has returned from an injury to save the team six runs. Nick Castellanos has provided the biggest individual defensive turnaround in baseball, costing the team just one run so far this season after costing the team 30 runs in 2014. Also, many of the team’s personnel decisions have helped out on the defensive side, especially the addition of Yoenis Cespedes (9 DRS in 2015) and the subtraction of Hunter (-17 DRS in 2014).

The Indians made moves in the offseason to try to improve their defense, as well, but they have continued to experience problems. However, one of those problems may now be fixed. Jose Ramirez cost the team two runs at shortstop over the first couple of months, but now the Indians have promoted prospect Francisco Lindor to play the position. Lindor’s scouting reports suggest he could be one of the best defenders in baseball, and the early returns are positive. If the Indians want to get back in the race, they will need to continue that defensive turnaround because the defensive success of the Royals and Tigers looks to be here to stay.