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Can the Bears overcome the odds?
Posted by John Dewan on Dec 16th 2015
December 23, 2008
This week's Stat of the Week is about overcoming the odds. The Chicago Bears entered the weekend with a slim-to-none chance of making the playoffs. After the weekend's games, including last night's incredible come-from-behind victory by the Bears over Green Bay, every single game the Bears could need to make the playoffs went their way. Four possible playoff teams were favored to win their games this weekend and all four lost. Counting last night, five games all went the Bears' way. Let's calculate the odds that all these games would go in the direction the Bears wanted:
| Playoff Contender | Game Result (home team in CAPS) | Probability of Outcome Favoring Bears Prior to Game |
| Dallas | Baltimore 33, DALLAS 24 | Dallas favored, call it 45% chance of losing |
| Philadelphia | WASHINGTON 10, Philadelphia 3 | 45% chance of losing |
| Tampa Bay | San Diego 41, TAMPA BAY 24 | 45% chance of losing |
| Minnesota | Atlanta 24, MINNESOTA 17 | 45% chance of losing |
| Bears | BEARS 20, Green Bay 17 | Bears favored at home, call it 60% chance of winning |
To figure the odds that all these games would go the Bears' way, we just multiply the probabilities together and get 2% (.45x.45x.45x.45x.60). The chances that all five games would go the Bears' way was 2 percent! Incredible.
Where are the Bears at now? First, they have to win against Houston. Chicago is favored by 3 right now so we'll call the Bears' chance of winning 60%. Then, they have two chances. Minnesota loses to the New York Giants to win the division, or Dallas and Tampa Bay both lose for the Bears to win the wild card. Here's the summary:
| Playoff Contender | Game | Probability of Outcome Favoring Bears Prior to Game |
| Minnesota | New York Giants at Minnesota | Minnesota favored, call it 40% chance of losing |
| Dallas | Dallas at Philadelphia | Dallas slightly favored, call it 48% chance of losing |
| Tampa Bay | Oakland at Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay heavily favored, call it 35% chance of losing |
| Bears | Bears at Houston | Bears favored, 60% chance of winning |
Bears chances to win the division: 24% (60% x 40%)
Bears chances to win the wild card: 10% (60% x 48% x 35%)
Add them together and you get the Bears overall chance of making the playoffs at 34%. Considering they just overcame 2% odds, 34% almost looks like a certainty!