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Can you predict the Super Bowl winner?
Posted by John Dewan on Dec 16th 2015
February 01, 2006
There's a system that I've been using for the past 15 years that has correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner 13 times. Let me share it with you here, then we'll see how it does on Sunday.
The system has twelve statistics that we use based on the regular season for the two Super Bowl teams. Each statistic individually predicts the Super Bowl winner roughly 55 to 70 percent of the time. But taken together, they perform much better. We look at each stat and determine which team is favored. Count up the number that favors each team and the team with the most stats in its favor usually wins the Super Bowl. Last year the Patriots were favored on nine stats, the Eagles on two and there was one tie. That 9-2-1 "record" pointed to a Patriots victory and they won 32-29 over the Eagles. The system is the most fun when it predicts the underdog to win, as it did with Tampa Bay over the Raiders two years ago. The system had the edge for the Buccs 7-5 that year.
One of the statistical categories is particularly interesting. It's Net Passing Yards by the offense during the regular season. It turns out that the team with fewer net passing yards generally wins the Super Bowl. In essence, the team that relies less on the passing game for its offense generally wins the Super Bowl. The team with the fewer net passing yards during the regular season has won 23 out of 39 Super Bowls, or 59% of the time.
How about this Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Seattle Seahawks? Here are the statisitcal categories:
| Category | Team with Advantage |
| Points Scored | Seahawks |
| Points Allowed | Steelers |
| Point Differential | Seahawks |
| Fewer Net Passing Yards | Steelers |
| Rushing Yards | Seahawks |
| Rushing Yards/Att | Seahawks |
| Opponent Net Passing Yards | Steelers |
| Opponent Rushing Yards | Steelers |
| Opponent Yards/Att | Steelers |
| Opponent Total Yards/Game | Steelers |
| Turnover Differential | Seahawks |
| Regular Season Record | Seahawks |
Oh no! That's a 6-6 tie. That's the first time since I've been doing this system that this has happened. We have to go to overtime!
Fortunately, we have a tiebreaker which works for this Super Bowl. In 16 previous Super Bowls one team had previous Super Bowl experience as a franchise and the other didn't. Twelve of those games were won by the team with experience. That 75% success rate is a good predictor as an individual statistic. We use this for our tiebreaker, meaning:
The Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted to win Super Bowl XL over the Seattle Seahawks. In overtime!