China Leads, but USA Will Come Back

As of this morning, China leads both the total medal count and the gold medal count at the 2012 Olympic Games in London. Here are the top five countries in order of total medals:

However, when we revise our pre-Olympic projections that we did with the Wall Street Journal by plugging in the actual winners thus far and using our probabilities for remaining events, we show final projected totals as follows:

As our simulation showed before the games, the United States remains pretty much a lock to win the total medal tally. For total golds, USA is likely to win that as well, but it will be close.