Loading... Please wait...
- Home
- John Dewan's Stat of the Week
- Does two-out hitting really mean anything?
Does two-out hitting really mean anything?
Posted by John Dewan on Dec 16th 2015
June 09, 2005
You hear the stat all the time. "Aaron Rowand is hitting .474 with runners in scoring position and two outs." Is this a worthwhile stat?When looking at baseball statistics I look for three things:
1) Does it measure a skill?
2) Is it interesting?
3) Is it meaningful?
Does it measure a skill? Can certain players have an ability to hitter better with two outs? Possible, but not likely.
Is it interesting? I find it interesting. Rowand batting .474 in that situation certainly tells me he's done the job in the past, though I do know intellectually that it doesn't necessarily mean he'll do the job again.
Is it meaningful? I think so. Three things are significant about two-out hitting. First, everyone is more emotionally involved with two outs, especially if there are runners on base. I'm always rooting for just one more hit so that the runners aren't wasted.
Second, it's tougher to hit with two outs. Pitchers realize they need only one more out and they are more careful to the hitter. Here are the batting averages in the majors over the last three and half years:
0 outs .273
1 out .268
2 outs .250
And with runners in scoring position and two outs? The batting average thus far in 2005 for Major League Baseball is .241.
Finally, it's more important to get a hit with two outs because there are usually more men on base than with less than two outs. Despite the lower batting average (and slugging percentage) with two outs, 38% of runs score with two outs. That's higher than the 33% you would expect.