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How Are the Projected Defensive Runs Saved Leaders Doing?

Posted by

August 23, 2012

At the beginning of the 2012 season, Baseball Info Solutions did a projection of the best defenders at each position based on Defensive Runs Saved. Here is how those players are doing so far this year:

Pitcher- Mark Buehrle, Projected 4 Defensive Runs Saved

Buehrle ranks number one as the best defensive pitcher in baseball with 11 runs saved thus far. He has long been one of the best fielding pitchers in the game and this year has been no different even as he changed teams and leagues.

Catcher- Matt Wieters, Projected 8 Runs Saved

Wieters is exactly on pace to match our projection with six runs saved so far, but a strong bounce back year by four-time Fielding Bible Award winner Yadier Molina (11 runs saved) has knocked him out of the top spot at the catcher position and into third place, also behind Josh Thole of the Mets (8 runs saved).

First Baseman- Albert Pujols, Projected 10 Runs Saved

Pujols has saved seven runs defensively for the Angels, tied for third among all first basemen. Mark Teixeira leads MLB first basemen saving 15 runs for the Yankees thus far. Pujols, like Molina, is a four-time Fielding Bible Award winner and his defense remains stellar despite, like Buehrle, changing teams and leagues.

Second Baseman- Ben Zobrist, Projected 16 Runs Saved

Zobrist has seen his playing time at second base decrease substantially, spending most of his time in right field. He has also been recently used at shortstop, a position he hasn't played since 2009. He has cost the Rays four runs defensively in his limited time at second base after being one of the premier defenders at the position over the past few seasons. The Cubs' Darwin Barney is having an incredible year defensively with 28 runs saved.

Third Baseman- Evan Longoria, Projected 15 Runs Saved

Longoria, the perennial runs saved leader at third base, has been sidelined for much of the year with a hamstring injury. Toronto's Brett Lawrie, projected to come in third for the season, leads third basemen, saving 18 runs for his team.

Shortstop- Brendan Ryan, Projected 16 Runs Saved

Ryan leads all shortstops with 22 runs saved on the year. He has finished either first or second in runs saved among shortstops in each of the last three years. Somehow Ryan has yet to win a single Fielding Bible Award or Gold Glove. Expect that to change.

Left Field- Brett Gardner, Projected 20 Runs Saved

Gardner's season ended after the first nine games with an elbow injury, dashing any hopes of a Fielding Bible Award three-peat in left field. His projected runner-up, Alex Gordon, leads MLB with 15 runs saved, already ahead of his projection of 11 runs.

Center Field- Austin Jackson, Projected 15 Runs Saved

Jackson's defense has fallen from elite (29 runs saved in 2011; 1st among center fielders) to just average this season (1 run saved; 16th among center fielders). It would appear that Jackson is playing a more shallow center field this year, resulting in a severe drop-off in turning deeply hit batted balls into outs in 2012. The best hitting 2012 center fielder is also the best defender. Mike Trout has saved 19 runs thus far patrolling center field for the Angels.

Right Field- Jason Heyward, Projected 11 Runs Saved

Heyward has turned in another outstanding defensive season in right field, outperforming our projection with 13 runs saved and placing him in a tie for second among all right fielders. He has only been knocked off of his throne due to a breakout season from Josh Reddick (15 runs saved).

Given the consistency of most of the projected leaders with their actual performance, one of the cool things this suggests is that defense is measurable and predictable, just as hitting and pitching are.


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