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How does the White Sox five-man rotation stack up?
Posted by John Dewan on Dec 16th 2015
April 05, 2006
The five-man pitching rotation was a new fangled gadget in the 1970’s that caught on and became the norm. By 1979 nearly every team was using a five-man rotation. Hawk Harrelson, the colorful broadcaster for the World Champion Chicago White Sox, recently declared that this year's White Sox rotation of Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland, and newly-acquired Javier Vazquez is the best five-man rotation he's ever seen.
While we have to agree that the rotation is excellent, it's a bit surprising to think of this group as the best five-man group ever. Or is it?
Let's look at all five-man rotations since 1979. We'll define the five-man group as the five pitchers on the team that had the most starts. Here's the first interesting stat:
Of the 744 teams to play in Major League Baseball since 1979, only 63 of them had five starters durable enough to start 150 games. That's an elite group of less than 10 percent of the teams in that time period, and the 2005 White Sox qualified as one of them with Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez as the fifth man. He's being replaced by Vazquez this year.
Who are the best teams in that group and where do the White Sox rank? We can't use ERA as a measure, because run scoring in baseball has varied so much in that time frame, especially in what is now being referred to as “The Steroid Era” of the late 90’s and early 2000’s. But we can use winning percentage as a consistent measure. Here are the top 10 teams:
Team Record Win % Starters
1998 Braves 88-37 .704 Glavine, Maddux, Millwood, Neagle, Smoltz
1980 Orioles 83-42 .664 Flanagan,
2001 Athletics 76-39 .661 Heredia, Hudson, Lidle, Mulder, Zito
1993 Braves 79-41 .658 Avery, Glavine, Maddux, Smith, Smoltz
2003 Braves 74-39 .655 Hampton, Maddux, Ortiz, Ramirez, Reynolds
2003 Yankees 77-41 .653 Clemens, Mussina, Pettitte, Weaver, Wells
2004 Cardinals 72-39 .649 Carpenter, Marquis, Morris, Suppan, Williams
1985 Dodgers 72-39 .649 Hershiser, Honeycutt, Reuss, Valenzuela, Welch
1989 Athletics 81-44 .648 Davis, Moore, Stewart, Welch, Young
1983 White Sox 83-45 .648 Bannister, Burns, Dotson, Hoyt, Koosman
The White Sox rank tenth, a good performance. But wait, it's not last year's team. It's 1983. Last year's team? They rank #16 with these numbers:
2005 White Sox 72-42 .632 Buehrle, Contreras, Garcia,
Will adding Javier Vazquez move them up that list when the results are in at the end of the season? It remains to be seen. Nearly everyone would agree that Vazquez is a better pitcher than El Duque at this stage of their careers, so it's definitely possible. But it's a tall order to achieve a combination of the outstanding durability to start 150 games while maintaining a high level of effectiveness for any five-man rotation.