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How effective are fifth starters in a pitching rotation?

Posted by

December 22, 2004

If you exclude the four best starters on each Major League team in 2004, the average win-loss record of the remaining starters is 14-21 with a 5.67 ERA. Not very good. Even if you look at just the playoff teams, the average is 16-16 with a 5.25 ERA.

Bottom line: To be a contender all you need for your fifth starter is a .500 pitcher.

Here are the numbers for the 2004 playoff teams (starter win-loss records and ERA excluding the top four starters):
  • New York Yankees.......26-21 5.74
  • Minnesota Twins........10-19 5.54
  • Anaheim Angels.........13-9 5.20
  • Boston Red Sox.........15-14 5.62
  • Atlanta Braves.........16-17 4.06
  • St. Louis Cardinals....17-12 4.74
  • Los Angeles Dodgers....18-18 5.65
  • Houston Astros.........15-21 5.43
  • Average................16-16 5.25
(Top four starters on each team determined as the four pitchers with the lowest opponent OPS among starters with 15+ starts)
For those Chicago fans out there, here’s how your teams match up:

Cubs 24-19, 4.33 ERA, second best ERA in baseball (Atlanta 4.08) Sox 16-28, 6.85 ERA, third worst ERA in baseball (Colorado 6.91, Arizona 8.16)


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