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How good is Jake Peavy?

Posted by

January 14, 2009

I'd like to answer this question by using my favorite pitcher stat, Opposing OPS. OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentage) has gained wide acceptance for evaluating hitters, but it is also a good stat to use for pitchers. In the past, batting average was the most common stat for hitters and ERA most common for pitchers. But unlike batting average, ERA is really a pretty good indicator of overall effectiveness for pitchers. Nevertheless, opposing OPS is one-step better. It eliminates a lot of the luck elements inherent in ERA. A couple of these elements are the effectiveness of relievers and the timeliness of hits.

Let's evaluate Peavy in this context. Opposing OPS over the last five years, using only starters with 100 or more starts, and only pitchers who played in 2008. By doing this, we are considering long-term effectiveness, durability, and limiting our analysis to active pitchers.

Here are the top ten pitchers in this context:

Pitcher Games Started ERA OPS
Johan Santana 168 2.82 .621
Jake Peavy 150 2.95 .647
Roy Halladay 136 3.23 .650
Chris Young 117 3.72 .664
John Smoltz 105 3.15 .666
Carlos Zambrano 161 3.45 .667
Brandon Webb 169 3.30 .668
Ben Sheets 128 3.24 .669
Randy Johnson 142 3.77 .672
CC Sabathia 158 3.40 .675

Based on these factors, it's clear that Johan Santana is the best, but Jake Peavy, even considering that he has played in a pitcher's park, is on the exclusive list.

If you lower the limit to 50 starts in the last five years, here's what you get:

Pitcher Games Started ERA OPS
Rich Harden 88 3.06 .614
Johan Santana 168 2.82 .621
Tim Lincecum 57 3.16 .636
Jake Peavy 150 2.95 .647
Chris Carpenter 97 3.11 .649
Roy Halladay 136 3.23 .650
Chris Young 117 3.72 .664
John Smoltz 105 3.15 .666
Carlos Zambrano 161 3.45 .667
Brandon Webb 169 3.30 .668

Source: Baseball Info Solutions.

The effectiveness of Rich Harden becomes obvious here. A healthy Rich Harden might be the best pitcher in baseball. If you are looking for youth, Tim Lincecum is your choice.


Apology to my radio listeners: In my radio Stat of the Week this past Tuesday on 670 the Score in Chicago, I inadvertently mixed up Opponent OPS with Opponent Slugging Percentage. For example, I said that Carlos Zambrano was the number one pitcher in Opponent OPS over the last five years. He's actually number one in Opponent Slugging Percentage and number six in Opponent OPS. My apologies!


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