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How low can the White Sox go?

Posted by

June 27, 2007

This past weekend's series sweep by the North Side enemy Chicago Cubs over my beloved Chicago White Sox represents a new low for the Sox this season. They scored a total of two runs in the three games. As recently as last year, the White Sox offense was one of the best in baseball. Now it is one of the worst. Which got me thinking, how often does a team’s offense go that bad that fast?

The two best ways to measure an offense is by runs per game and by OPS (On-base percentage Plus Slugging average). We looked at the current year and the previous year for every team in the history of baseball. We found that if the White Sox maintain their current anemic pace on offense they will show a decline of historic proportions: the largest drop in OPS from one season to the next in the last 100 years.

Team Year 2 Year 1 OPS Difference
White Sox 2007 2006 -.136
Pirates 1931 1930 -.124
Red Sox 1943 1942 -.114
Reds 1971 1970 -.107
Orioles 1972 1971 -.104
Red Sox 1951 1950 -.099
Dodgers 1931 1930 -.098
Pirates 1952 1951 -.097
Tigers 1988 1987 -.097
Braves 1988 1987 -.096

(through games of Monday, June 25, 2007)

How bad did the White Sox offense decline in one year based on runs per game? The White Sox are on pace to have the worst runs per game decline in the last 70 years.

Team Year 2 Year 1 Runs Per Game Difference
White Sox 2007 2006 -1.47
Red Sox 1951 1950 -1.45
Cardinals 1988 1987 -1.36
Orioles 1972 1971 -1.33
Tigers 1941 1940 -1.31
Red Sox 1943 1942 -1.30
Pirates 1946 1945 -1.30
Brewers 1997 1996 -1.29
White Sox 1978 1977 -1.28
Twins 1978 1977 -1.27

(through games of Monday, June 25, 2007)

With little more than half the season remaining, I hope this year’s White Sox offense doesn’t go down in infamy.

P.S. That 1977-1978 White Sox drop was the 1977 “South Side Hitmen” built on several “rent-a-free-agent” players that fell off in 1978 after their “lease” expired. They were #9 in runs per game decline (down 1.28 runs) after experiencing the biggest increase in 70 years from 1976 to 1977 (up 1.57 runs per game).


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