How Meaningful are the First Ten Games?

It’s rather remarkable that such a small sample size can show a trend, but sure enough, based on the last ten years of data, the first ten games of the season do just that.  Since 2002, 44 teams have started the season with 3 or fewer wins in their first ten games.  Only 4 of them (9%) have gone on to win 90 games for the year.  On the flip side, 46 teams have started the season with 7 or more wins and 21 of them (46%) have gone on to win 90.

Nevertheless, there are exceptions and last season had more than its fair share.  Three of the four instances in the last ten years where a team wound up with 90 wins despite a horrible start occurred last year.  Both the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays started the season at with a 2-8 record, and both went on to win 90+ games.  The Tigers started 3-7 and wound up with 95 wins.  Of the five teams that started with 3 or fewer wins in their first 10 games, three of them went on to win 90 or more.

Among the fast starters, only two of the teams that started with 7 or more wins in their first 10 went on to win 90 or more.

In 2011, more poor starting teams did well by season's end, compared to the fast starters.

This year, the slow starters with only 3 wins in their first 10 games are the Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, and Pittsburgh Pirates.  The San Diego Padres only won two of their first 10.  If historical norms hold, it is unlikely that any of these teams will go on to win 90 or more.  Based on pre-season projections for these teams (the only team we had near .500 was the Padres), this comes as no surprise.

The fast starting teams are the Los Angeles Dodgers (9-1) and the Texas Rangers (8-2).  The Detroit Tigers, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals started with 7 wins in their first 10 games.  If past trends hold, four of these teams will finish with 90 or more.

Here’s the complete chart for the last ten years:

Performance in First Ten Games (2002 - 2011)