How often do hitters pull grounders?

In last night’s game between the White Sox and Royals, Jim Thome came to the plate for the Sox with men on first and second in the ninth inning of a one-run game. As is usual with a handful of sluggers like Thome (e.g., Bonds, Ortiz, Howard), the shift was on. Three infielders were to the right of second base expecting the lefty to pull the ball. Because of the runner on second, the third baseman wasn’t swung over towards second base as is customary with Thome batting. Sure enough, Thome grounded the ball directly through the normal shortstop position scoring that all-important insurance run putting the White Sox up 6-4.

Were the Kansas City Royals playing the right defense, in essence having 75% of their infielders to the right of second base?

Actually, yes. In 2006, Jim Thome pulled 81% of all grounders he hit to the right side of second base. Interestingly, when he does hit the ball on the ground to the left of second, it usually does go to the normal shortstop position. However, the man on second prevented the third baseman from playing there.

Taking all major league hitters together, they pull grounders a surprisingly high 72% of the time. Shifting your infielders to have three players on the same side of second is a strategy that makes sense, and I believe we’ll see more and more of it as time goes on. There are even a few right-handed hitters for whom a shift makes sense. Placing three players to the left of second is more difficult because the first baseman, like the third baseman with a runner at second, can’t move far from the bag. However, when you have some right-handed hitters who pull more than 85% of their grounders, it makes sense to shift for them as well.

Here are the leading shift candidates in baseball:

Note: includes hitters with 100 or more groundballs in 2006

It’s surprising to find a player like Jimmy Rollins on this list. He’s a switch-hitter, but when he bats lefty he pulls grounders 85% of the time. With his excellent speed, you may think you need to keep him honest on the bunt and position your third baseman accordingly, but the fact of the matter is that he hasn’t put a bunt into play in his last 937 plate appearances. If I were a major league manager, I’d make him prove he can bunt and play my third baseman at shortstop when Rollins is at the plate swinging lefty. Then if he shows me he can, I still play a shift but with my third baseman ready for the bunt (and move him back to the shortstop position with two strikes).

We’ll take a look at how often hitters pull flyballs next week.