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Is it easy to score a runner from third with less than two outs?
Posted by John Dewan on Dec 16th 2015
September 25, 2008
It's one of the more frustrating things to watch as a fan. There's a runner on third with one out. There's a million ways to score him. And the batter strikes out. Or pops out. All he needed was a little single. Or a medium flyball. Or even a squib grounder. Geez Louise!
How often do major league hitters get that runner in? Thinking about it, the major league batting average is about .260, so it has to be at least that high. Then there's the sacrifice fly, the ground ball, the occasional squeeze bunt, even the bases-loaded walk or hit batsman. Can that push it up over 50%?
It turns out that the major league batting average with runners on third with less than two outs is .332 this year. It was .336 last year in that situation. That's pretty amazing. When you add in all the other factors, it does jump over 50% to 55.5%. Here are the totals this year.
Runner on third, less than two outs -- MLB, 2008:
| Opportunities | 9,296 |
| Driven in by Batter | 5,156 |
| Percentage | 55.5% |
Here are the best and worst teams:
| White Sox | 177 - 284 | 62.3% |
| Twins | 243 - 394 | 61.7% |
| Red Sox | 206 - 345 | 59.7% |
| Yankees | 177 - 302 | 58.6% |
| Rangers | 184 - 317 | 58.0% |
| Giants | 171 - 324 | 52.8% |
| Mariners | 163 - 310 | 52.6% |
| Dodgers | 161 - 310 | 51.9% |
| Brewers | 141 - 274 | 51.5% |
| Rockies | 162 - 327 | 49.5% |
Here are the top 10 and bottom 5 hitters in this situation this year (15 or more opportunities):
| Brian Buscher, Twins | 20 - 24 | 83.3% |
| J.D. Drew, Red Sox | 14 - 17 | 82.4% |
| Alfonso Soriano, Cubs | 13 - 16 | 81.3% |
| Casey Blake, Indians | 13 - 16 | 81.3% |
| Ryan Doumit, Pirates | 15 - 19 | 78.9% |
| Albert Pujols, Cardinals | 26 - 33 | 78.8% |
| Reed Johnson, Cubs | 18 - 23 | 78.3% |
| Denard Span, Twins | 17 - 22 | 77.3% |
| Mark Teixeira, Angels | 13 - 17 | 76.5% |
| Brandon Inge, Tigers | 13 - 17 | 76.5% |
| Rick Ankiel, Cardinals | 9 - 28 | 32.1% |
| Kelly Shoppach, Indians | 5 - 16 | 31.3% |
| Jose Castillo, Giants | 8 - 26 | 30.8% |
| Jason Varitek, Red Sox | 8 - 27 | 29.6% |
| Willy Aybar, Rays | 5 - 22 | 22.7% |
(Source Baseball Info Solutions, 2008 regular season through the games of Wednesday, September 24, 2008)