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The Most Efficient Teams in Baseball

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June 08, 2012

The most efficient teams in baseball this year will probably come as no surprise.  In the American League, the Orioles and Blue Jays have far exceeded everyone’s expectations and in the National League, the Mets are enjoying a start to their season that no one saw coming.  And sure enough, based on the Team Efficiency rating system created by Bill James and Baseball Info Solutions, all three teams are among the most efficient teams in baseball thus far this year.

Most Efficient Teams - American League

Team Efficient
Wins
Actual
Wins
"Extra"
Wins
Orioles 27 32 +5
Rays 28 32 +4
Blue Jays 28 30 +2

Most Efficient Teams - National League

Team Efficient
Wins
Actual
Wins
"Extra"
Wins
Pirates 23 29 +6
Mets 29 32 +3
Reds 28 31 +3


On the other side of the equation, the Cubs are not really as bad as their record shows.  That’s because they’ve been one of the least efficient teams this year. They’ve only won 19 games, but with average efficiency they should have won 25. Combining leagues, here are the five least efficient teams:

Least Efficient Teams - Both Leagues

Team Efficient
Wins
Actual
Wins
"Extra"
Wins
Cardinals 37 30 -7
Rangers 39 33 -6
Cubs 25 19 -6
Padres 23 19 -4
Phillies 32 28 -4


From The Bill James Handbook 2012, Bill James describes team efficiency:

The concept of "efficiency", as we mean it here, asks the question "Does this team put together the elements of wins in combinations that work?"   Given the number of singles, doubles, triples and whatnot that the team’s hitters have, do they score the number of runs that they should score?   Given the number of hits and walks and such like that the pitchers surrender, do they give up the number of runs that we would expect them to give up?   And, given the number of runs that they score and allow, does this team win the number of games that they should win?


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