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What does the Win Share system say about this year's Hall of Fame nominees?
Posted by John Dewan on Dec 16th 2015
January 10, 2007
The Hall of Fame ballot listed 32 players this year. One way to examine this list is to use a tool Bill James created in his 2002 book of the same name, Win Shares. Bill examines pitching, hitting and defensive contributions as shares of a win (actually a third of a win). His system adjusts for park, league and era. This makes this metric (statistic) perfect for a simple analysis of the 2007 HOF nominees.Below we list all 32 players with their career win shares.
| 2007 HOF Nominee | Win Shares |
| Cal Ripken | 427 |
| Tony Gwynn | 398 |
| Mark McGwire | 342 |
| Andre Dawson | 340 |
| Bert Blyleven | 339 |
| Dave Parker | 327 |
| Alan Trammell | 318 |
| Harold Baines | 307 |
| Dale Murphy | 294 |
| Tommy John | 289 |
| Jim Rice | 282 |
| Tony Fernandez | 280 |
| Steve Garvey | 279 |
| Jose Canseco | 272 |
| Dave Concepcion | 269 |
| Bobby Bonilla | 267 |
| Don Mattingly | 263 |
| Paul O'Neill | 259 |
| Wally Joyner | 253 |
| Albert Belle | 243 |
| Ken Caminiti | 242 |
| Jack Morris | 225 |
| Eric Davis | 224 |
| Goose Gossage | 223 |
| Orel Hershiser | 210 |
| Devon White | 207 |
| Lee Smith | 198 |
| Bret Saberhagen | 193 |
| Jay Buhner | 174 |
| Dante Bichette | 168 |
| Scott Brosius | 111 |
| Bobby Witt | 102 |
This week's officially announced winners, Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn, appear on top.
The next three spots are very tight: Mark McGwire, Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven. We all know why McGwire wasn't elected. His 583 home runs, seventh on the all-time list, would normally have gotten him elected quite easily. What's interesting to me is how close Dawson and Blyleven are to McGwire's win share total.
Goose Gossage appears low on this list, but an ESPN fan poll and a poll of some of my knowledgeable baseball friends (where he received 71%) both see him worthy of consideration. My own personal vote for the Hall in our poll was: Ripken, Gwynn, Blyleven and Gossage. I might amend my list to include Dawson next time.
Hey! What the heck are Scott Brosius and Bobby Witt doing on this ballot? Witt had a win-loss record of 142-157 in his career. And how did Tony Gwynn get so fat?