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Who are the MVP Candidates?
Posted by John Dewan on Dec 16th 2015
August 30, 2011
Total Runs was introduced in my book, The Fielding Bible–Volume II, and attempts to paint as complete a statistical picture of a player’s ability as possible. It produces one number that is derived from a player’s offensive contributions, his skill on the basepaths, and his defensive acumen. You can read more about Total Runs at the end of this article.
Here are the MVP candidates, based on Total Runs, for the American League.
| American League MVP Candidates | |||||
| Player | Runs Created | Baserunning Runs | Runs Saved | Positional Adjustment | Total Runs |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 100 | 3 | 18 | 22 | 143 |
| Jose Bautista | 115 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 134 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 98 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 133 |
| Ben Zobrist | 86 | 1 | 19 | 23 | 129 |
| Curtis Granderson | 104 | 3 | -12 | 23 | 118 |
Jacoby Ellsbury is a bit of a surprise. His 143 Total Runs are not only tops in the American League, but tops in all of baseball. His offensive contributions (100 Runs Created) are very respectable but surpassed by several others. It’s his defense that really comes into play as he gets 22 runs credit for playing a key defensive position (Positional Adjustment) and 18 runs credit for his tremendous performance defensively. Ellsbury also gets a bit of a boost with three baserunning runs. Curtis Granderson is baseball’s leader in home runs (38) and RBI (107), but he has cost his team an estimated 12 runs defensively and that substantially affects his overall value.
The National League Leaders are:
| National League MVP Candidates | |||||
| Player | Runs Created | Baserunning Runs | Runs Saved | Positional Adjustment | Total Runs |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 96 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 138 |
| Matt Kemp | 104 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 132 |
| Justin Upton | 98 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 125 |
| Joey Votto | 111 | -2 | -1 | 11 | 119 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 87 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 118 |
Reigning National League MVP Joey Votto has had a great season with the bat, as shown by his 111 Runs Created, but has struggled a bit on the basepaths and has been average defensively in the field. Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has saved 14 runs defensively and has 96 Runs Created to lead National League MVP candidates with 138 Total Runs.
Total Runs
For the offensive part of Total Runs, we use Bill James’ formula for Runs Created, a measure of the number of a team’s runs an individual hitter is responsible for. It includes stolen base efficiency. Baserunning Runs summarizes the impact of taking an extra base or getting thrown out on the basepaths, not counting stolen bases. Regular Stat of the Week readers will recognize the defensive component as Defensive Runs Saved, the number of runs a player saves or costs his team in the field compared to others at his position. We then add in a positional adjustment that accounts for the value of the position a fielder plays. For example, shortstops are far more valuable than first basemen. Troy Tulowitzki playing shortstop has 28 runs for his positional adjustment while Joey Votto only has 11 for playing first base. This is an adjustment for players who are average defensively at their position. Defensive Runs Saved then factor in their defense performance relative to average. The positional adjustment is based on innings at a position, so a shortstop who plays all 162 games will have a higher positional adjustment than a utility player that spends time at several positions.
For more information on Total Runs and Defensive Runs Saved, visit FieldingBible.com.