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Who else has a chance at 700 home runs?

Posted by

October 20, 2006

Barry Bonds has passed the 700 home run mark, and with 734 dingers he's moving up on Hank Aaron's all-time record of 755. And now, having just ended the 2006 season, we have another player who has established equal odds to reach the 700 milestone. They may boo him in New York, but even after having "only" launched 35 long ones in 2006, Alex Rodriguez has established himself as a 50-50 chance to become the fourth player to hit 700 home runs.

Here is the list from the Bill James Handbook 2007:

700 Home runs
(% Chance to Reach Milestone)
Player % Chance
Barry Bonds, Giants Done
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees 50%
Albert Pujols, Cardinals 31%
Andruw Jones, Braves 27%
Manny Ramirez, Red Sox 19%
Adam Dunn, Reds 15%
David Ortiz, Red Sox 13%
Ken Griffey, Jr., Reds 12%
Ryan Howard, Phillies 6%
Vladimir Guerrero, Angels 6%

At the age of 30, A-Rod has 464 home runs. That's the highest age-30 total of any player in history. . .by a wide margin. The player in second place at age 30 had 438--Ken Griffey Jr. Hank Aaron had 366.


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