Who will win Super Bowl XLII?

The system that I’ve used to predict the Super Bowl winner has worked in 14 of the last 17 years. Unfortunately, it didn’t work for my Bears last year (Who will win Super Bowl XLI?), but I’m not giving up on it. It involves 12 predictors; based on regular season stats, that each successfully predicts the Super Bowl winner roughly 54 to 69 percent of the time, but taken together they work even better.

Before looking at the numbers, I was wondering if the New England Patriots would win all twelve categories. But, as they say, you still have to play the game, so let’s go ahead and do that. We’ll go through the predictors as if we’re playing a game. We’ll start with the three least predictive categories and call that the first quarter. The second quarter will be the next three least predictive ones. We’ll finish up with the strongest six predictors, three in each of the last two quarters of the game.

First Quarter

Here’s the coin flip, and the Giants elect to receive:

The Giants win two of the three “first quarter” categories.

End of First Quarter: Giants 6, Patriots 3

Second Quarter

Once again, the Giants win two of the three categories.

End of First Half: Giants 13, Patriots 6

Third Quarter

The Patriots receive the kickoff but immediately turn the ball over.

Giants score again taking a two-score lead, 16-6.

New York has now won five of the first seven categories. Can they take two of the last five for the win?

However, New England comes back in the third quarter:

The Giants have now won five categories to four for the Patriots.

End of Third Quarter: Giants 16, Patriots 13

Fourth Quarter

The two strongest elements in the predictions system are two defensive stats, fewer years allowed and fewer points allowed. The Patriots win both of these and shut out New York in the fourth quarter. New England wins seven predictors while New York wins five.

Final Score: Patriots 26, Giants 16