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John Dewan's Stat of the Week
Young Guns in the Rotation
This season, with injuries to Sonny Gray, Daniel Mengden, and Chris Bassitt, the Oakland Athletics are turning to three players in their starting rotation with very little major league playing experience. These players include two rookies, Jharel Cotton and Raul Alcantara, and sophomore Andrew Triggs who only just exceeded rookie limits in 2016. Similarly, the [...]
Out Ratio vs. Catch Probability
Earlier this month at both the Sloan Analytics Conference in Boston and the SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix, MLBAM’s StatCast team released details on a new statistic that they have started to report on flyballs to the outfield: Catch Probability. Catch Probability is a measure of how hard a catch is to make [...]
The WBC and the 11th Inning Rule
The WBC and the 11th Inning RuleMarch 21, 2017 We still have a few weeks until the MLB season starts, but it almost feels like we are in the middle of a pennant chase thanks to the drama being provided by the World Baseball Classic. There has been a lot of energy in the stadiums, [...]
Who Will Be The 2017 Statistical Leaders?
It feels like spring in Chicago where I live, and, more importantly, it feels like spring in Arizona and Florida where Spring Training is underway. Now that the majority of the offseason moves are behind us and Opening Day is just over a month away, it is time for our annual spring update of [...]
Up-the-Middle Defense Projections
We are just getting started with Spring Training, but projection season is already in full swing, so let's take a peek at our Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) projections for 2017. Below are the teams with the best and worst projected up-the-middle fielders (i.e. catcher, second baseman, shortstop, and center fielder). This is often a good [...]
Kyle Schwarber at Catcher
Earlier this week, Cubs GM Theo Epstein told reporters that they plan to give Kyle Schwarber some innings at catcher this spring so that he can serve as the team's third catcher during the season. One concern is whether Schwarber can handle catching duties given that he is less than a year removed from [...]
Pirates’ Outfield Configuration
On Sunday, the Pirates announced their plan to reconfigure their defensive outfield in 2017, moving long-time center fielder Andrew McCutchen to right field, Gregory Polanco to left field, and defensive stalwart Starling Marte to center field. Based simply on their Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) totals from 2016, the move makes sense. Marte led [...]
Pitch Framing – Which is it Gonna Be, Atlanta?
Last week, the Atlanta Braves added Kurt Suzuki as their backup catcher behind Tyler Flowers. With this new addition, let’s examine how the Braves stack up defensively at the catcher position. There are five different components of Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) for catchers: Stolen Base Runs Saved, Bunts Runs Saved, Good Play/Misplay Runs Saved, Adjusted [...]
Trading for Defense
The Seattle Mariners have been busy this offseason with 11 trades. Including their deal with the Cubs back in July when they acquired Dan Vogelbach, there are now four likely changes to their starting lineup for 2017. Jarrod Dyson from the Royals and Mitch Haniger from the Diamondbacks will be replacing Nori Aoki and Seth [...]
The Decline of an Elite Defender
In 2010, Alexei Ramirez saved 20 runs as a defender playing shortstop for the White Sox. He ranked 3rd in Major League Baseball behind only Alex Gonzalez (26) and Brendan Ryan (24). This past season, however, he was the worst shortstop defensively in all Major League Baseball costing his teams (Padres and Rays) 20 runs. [...]