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John Dewan's Stat of the Week
Who Are This Year's Potential Breakout Players?
April 03, 2012 Spring Training statistics have been the subject of many debates in baseball circles. On one hand, teams are making roster decisions based on how players have performed this spring. On the other hand, hitters are working into shape and working on their swings while pitchers are building up strength and refining [...]
To Shift or Not To Shift
March 29, 2012 That is the question. In our book, The Fielding Bible—Volume III, Ben Jedlovec and I provide some research that suggests that a shift, in particular, the Ted Williams Shift with three infielders to the right of second base, reduces the batting average on groundballs, short liners and bunts by [...]
The Best Players of 2011 Based on Total Runs
March 23, 2012 One of the byproducts of our work developing a system to measure runs for defensive play (Defensive Runs Saved) is that we can combine it with runs for offensive play and runs for pitching. We do this in the book, The Fielding Bible – Volume III, and call it [...]
The Impact of Good Plays and Misplays
March 13, 2012 There are 54 separate Defensive Misplays and 28 separate Good Fielding Plays that Baseball Info Solutions has "scouted" going back to 2004. One of our biggest undertakings in the last three years has been to convert Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays into Runs Saved. Today we’re going [...]
Who Will Be the Best Defenders in 2012?
February 29, 2012 One of the new features of The Fielding Bible – Volume III (arrived at the publisher today!) is a section on defensive projections. The calculation is simple: prorate each player’s three-year Defensive Runs Saved over the number of innings we forecast them to play at each position in 2012. [...]
How Well Do Defensive Statistics Correlate?
February 25, 2012 We've put a lot of effort into improving defensive metrics in recent years, but how much progress have we really made? In the introduction to The Fielding Bible—Volume III, I said: "For hitters, we might be at the 85-90 percent mark of being able to measure offense. We have a lot [...]
The Fielding Bible—Volume III Preview
February 10, 2012 We just sent The Fielding Bible—Volume III to the printer. And, boy, are my arms tired! We have literally spent several thousand man-hours of research since the last volume came out. It feels like most of that was in the last few weeks as we tried to meet our deadline. One of the sections [...]
The Super Bowl Prediction System
January 24, 2012 Consider these four things: 1) The Patriots rank 31st in total defense (yards allowed) in the NFL this year. 2) The Packers, another juggernaut, ranked 32nd and lost earlier in the playoffs. 3) Defense wins championships, "they" say. 4) The Super [...]
Playing the Outfield in Camden Yards
January 12, 2012 Do Nick Markakis and Adam Jones play worse defense when they play at home? Are there park effects at work? Gordon Gray, a Bill James Online subscriber, pointed out a discussion going on about these questions. Both Markakis and Jones have shown much worse range at home than on the road. Using the Plus/Minus [...]
Cannon Arms in 2011
January 06, 2012 Defense in the outfield isn't just about how well you track flyballs. Once an outfielder has the ball way out there in the pasture, he has to get it back in to keep baserunners from advancing. It’s not just about throwing out baserunners and earning assists. Preventing a runner from advancing from first [...]