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John Dewan's Stat of the Week
USA on Track (and on Snow)
February 23, 2010 With six days left, Canada has fallen too far behind. Before the Olympics started it looked like they had a good shot at winning the medal race. But the United States has risen to the occasion and is in the lead, with Germany coming on strong the last couple of days. Vancouver's proximity [...]
Can Canada win the most Olympic medals for the first time in history?
February 12, 2010 The 2010 Winter Olympics kick off in Vancouver, Canada tonight. The host country often rises to the occasion and posts a team performance beyond their previous norms. China claimed 100 medals in Beijing in 2008. Their previous best was 63 in Athens in 2004. Can Canada use their home field advantage? As [...]
The Missing Ingredient of Pitcher Defense
February 05, 2010 Mark Buehrle won both the Gold Glove and Fielding Bible Award last season, and justifiably so. The White Sox southpaw saved a league-leading seven runs by fielding his position, according to the Plus/Minus System. However, Buehrle also excelled in the often-overlooked part of pitcher defense: controlling the running game. Buehrle only allowed [...]
The Super Bowl Prediction System -- Super Bowl XLIV is a toss-up
January 28, 2010 All the betting lines favor the Colts right now by five or six points, but in my book it's a toss-up. If I were a betting man, I'd take the Saints and the points. But if you do that, don't blame me if you lose. It's that close. In my Super Bowl [...]
Is Livan Hernandez' arm about to fall off?
June 23, 2006 Maybe not, but if it were based on the number of pitches he's thrown in the last three and a half years, it certainly would be. Here is the leader board of pitchers with the most pitches thrown since the beginning of 2003. [...]
Which run in a game is most important?
August 04, 2005 A strong case can be made for the first run of the game. At the start of a game, each team has a 50-50 chance of winning (in general). The team that scores the first run ups their chances of winning to about 65%. That's an improvement of 15 percentage points. However, [...]
Is Derek Jeter Mr. Clutch while A-Rod only puts up the big numbers when it doesn't count?
July 07, 2005 There's a lot of trash talking from Yankee fans about how Alex Rodriguez does nothing worthwhile in the clutch, while Derek Jeter only ever does things when they count. Let's take a look at this. We'll break down RBI totals for Jeter and A-Rod by score of the game. If it's true that [...]
Do closers lose intensity in non-save situations?
June 23, 2005 Over the last three-and-a-half years the top closers have posted an ERA of 2.51 when coming into the game in a save situation. These save situations represent about two-thirds of all their appearances. But what about the non-save situations? The answer to the title question appears to be a clear-cut yes. [...]
Are the White Sox Winning Because of “Small-Ball”?
June 16, 2005 After the White Sox first 64 games, they had the best record in MLB (42-22). That is seven wins more than last year’s first 64 games despite a significant drop in runs per game from 5.8 to 4.6. Is this “small-ball” or something else? In games where the White Sox scored two or [...]
Cubs pitchers aren't pitching that well, but can they hit?
July 22, 2005 It's always amazing to see how poorly most pitchers hit. The batting average for pitchers in baseball thus far this year is .148. But Cubs pitchers are not the norm in this regard. They lead NL pitching staffs in hitting with a .211 average. For perspective, a nice rule of thumb is [...]