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John Dewan's Stat of the Week
Is Derek Jeter overrated?
March 03, 2006 Or is he underrated? The following is an exerpt from the book The Mind of Bill James by Scott Gray: " 'Derek Jeter is so overrated,' Reuben says. In the James household, the Yankees' captain is known as 'Dirty Rotten Jeter.' I'm guilty as anyone thinking Jeter is overrated, but we [...]
The 0-2 nightmare
April 22, 2009 A hitter's worst nightmare is getting behind 0–2 in the count. In 2008, batters hit just .179 after getting behind 0–2, a full 85 points below the league average (.264). Additionally, hitters who fell behind 0–2 saw their on–base percentage drop 120 points (from .330 to .210) and their slugging percentage drop .148 [...]
Who is Baseball's Best Player?
May 12, 2010 No question: Albert Pujols. He is baseball’s best hitter. Has been for years. And he is baseball’s best defender at his position. He is the only four-time recipient of the Fielding Bible Award. You can’t get much better than that. Or can you? I submit, for your consideration, that baseball’s best player right [...]
How do we explain the Rays' remarkable transformation?
April 13, 2009 For this week's Stat of the Week, we turn to a recent question we received from a reader: Hi John, I have a suggestion for an article for you that might be right up your alley, considering your recent piece on the importance of defense. Last season, the Rays allowed 273 fewer [...]
Which players might go up a notch this year based on their Spring Training statistics?
April 03, 2009 This is our fifth annual list of possible breakout players based on Spring Training statistics. We researched the value of Spring Training stats a few years back and it was quite revealing. For the most part, we agree with the common perception that they don't have value. A bad spring training means nothing. [...]
Does the "Ted Williams Shift" make sense?
March 27, 2009 Based on data from Baseball Info Solutions, there are seven guys in baseball for whom most teams play the "Ted Williams Shift." That is, they put three infielders on the right side of second base hoping that the defense will come up with more plays due to their expectation that these players will [...]
The most significant discovery of my career
March 12, 2009 About two weeks ago The Fielding Bible—Volume II went to print. Since then, as I've been studying some of the data in the book preparing for interviews, I came upon a discovery that was truly amazing to me. The most amazing, and significant, discovery of my 25 years in the baseball analysis business. [...]
Who are the top 10 projected hitters for the 2009 season?
March 06, 2009 Twice a year we project the upcoming season for the most important hitters and pitchers. First, we run the earliest projections in The Bill James Handbook. Then we run them again around this time of year, updating them for the latest transactions and playing time estimates. We do it because it's fun and [...]
An 84% chance of predicting the Super Bowl winner?
January 28, 2009 Those of you who have followed my Stat of the Week work on the radio or here via email and the web probably have seen my Super Bowl prediction system. I've eaten some crow the last two years when the system failed. It was especially discouraging two years ago when the system picked [...]
How good is Jake Peavy?
January 14, 2009 I'd like to answer this question by using my favorite pitcher stat, Opposing OPS. OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentage) has gained wide acceptance for evaluating hitters, but it is also a good stat to use for pitchers. In the past, batting average was the most common stat for hitters and ERA most common [...]