Posted by Brian Reiff on Jul 9th 2019
July 9, 2019
MLB changed the voting process for this year’s All-Star Game, but did that help get the most deserving players into the starting lineup? One way we can determine that is by using Total Runs, a statistic created by Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) that combines offense, defense, baserunning and a positional adjustment into one number, to evaluate the overall contribution a player has made to their team. (Total Runs also considers pitching, but because the starting pitchers are determined by the manager, only position players are considered here.)
There are a few differences in the American League between the selected lineup and the Total Runs leaders. Four of the leaders earned the start—one of those being annual free space Mike Trout—with some others missing out in what was essentially a toss-up.
Besides Trout, the other AL All-Star starters to lead their position in Total Runs were Carlos Santana, DJ LeMahieu and Jorge Polanco. Meanwhile, Gary Sánchez and Alex Bregman earned the starting nod and were within four runs of the leaders at their respective positions.
American League All-Star Starters and Total Runs Leaders
Pos | All-Star Selection | Total Runs | Total Runs Leader | Total Runs |
---|---|---|---|---|
C | Gary Sánchez, NYY | 55 | Roberto Pérez, CLE | 59 |
1B | Carlos Santana, CLE | 77 | Carlos Santana, CLE | 77 |
2B | DJ LeMahieu, NYY | 84 | DJ LeMahieu, NYY | 84 |
3B | Alex Bregman, HOU | 83 | Matt Chapman, OAK | 85 |
SS | Jorge Polanco, MIN | 91 | Jorge Polanco, MIN | 91 |
OF | Mike Trout, LAA | 106 | Mike Trout, LAA | 106 |
OF | Michael Brantley, HOU | 72 | Mookie Betts, BOS | 85 |
OF | George Springer, HOU | 59 | Max Kepler, MIN | 77 |
DH | Hunter Pence, TEX | 41 | J.D. Martinez, BOS | 59 |
Elsewhere, two Houston outfielders in Michael Brantley and George Springer start over Mookie Betts of the Red Sox and Max Kepler of the Twins despite falling short in Total Runs. At DH, J.D. Martinez has now been named the starter after Pence backed out of the game with an injury, although Total Runs says he perhaps should’ve been awarded the start to begin with.
The National League team, meanwhile, looks to be much stronger than its opponent, at least on paper. The starting lineup in the NL has combined for 719 Total Runs thus far, compared to 627 for the AL (645 if you plug in Martinez for Pence). This is in part due to the All-Star selections matching up more closely with the Total Runs leaders, with only two positions featuring a player who did not lead their position (and only one of those featuring a significant difference).
National League All-Star Starters and Total Runs Leaders
Pos | All-Star Selection | Total Runs | Total Runs Leader | Total Runs |
---|---|---|---|---|
C | Willson Contreras, CHC | 63 | J.T. Realmuto, PHI | 74 |
1B | Freddie Freeman, ATL | 85 | Freddie Freeman, ATL | 85 |
2B | Ketel Marte, ARI | 92 | Ketel Marte, ARI | 92 |
3B | Nolan Arenado, COL | 88 | Nolan Arenado, COL | 88 |
SS | Javier Báez, CHC | 90 | Trevor Story, COL | 91 |
OF | Cody Bellinger, LAD | 113 | Cody Bellinger, LAD | 113 |
OF | Christian Yelich, MIL | 102 | Christian Yelich, MIL | 102 |
OF | Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | 86 | Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | 86 |
Cubs fans will undoubtedly be happy to see Willson Contreras and Javier Báez in the starting lineup. However, according to Total Runs, neither has been the best at their position through the first half of the season. Contreras has been 11 runs worse than Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, while Báez, though essentially tied, is edged out by Trevor Story of the Rockies.
All in all, the voters and the numbers match up about as well as they have in previous years. The Total Runs leaders were selected to start at 10 of the 17 available positions. From 2016–2018, the number of matching selections were 8, 11, and 10.
The top of the Total Runs Saved leaderboard can be found at Bill James Online.