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John Dewan's Stat of the Week - Chicago Bears

A Bears Fan's Sad Lament

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By JOHN DEWAN

As the Buccaneers and Chiefs head to the Super Bowl, as a lifelong Bears fan, I can only wish for better days.

The Bears selected Mitchell Trubisky out of North Carolina with the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft in 2017. That was eight spots ahead of the Chiefs, who took Patrick Mahomes, and 10 spots ahead of the Texans, who selected Deshaun Watson.

Trubisky has taken a lot of heat from Bears fans the last four seasons. The net result of his play is that he has bright spots but is not a game-changer and not a guy whose performance was worthy of the No. 2 pick. Mahomes is a proven franchise quarterback and Super Bowl winner. Watson has ascended to one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.

Watson and Mahomes finished 1-2 among quarterbacks in our player value stat, Total Points, this season. Despite the Bears’ on-field success, Trubisky finished 43rd in Total Points among the 50 quarterbacks who took the most snaps.

Most Total Points by QB – 2020 Season

Player Team Total Points
1. Deshaun Watson Texans 173
2. Patrick Mahomes Chiefs 170
3. Tom Brady Buccaneers 160
4. Josh Allen Bills 154
5. Aaron Rodgers Packers 154
6. Russell Wilson Seahawks 124
7. Justin Herbert Chargers 116
8. Matt Ryan Falcons 111
9. Ryan Tannehill Titans 107
10. Derek Carr Raiders 100

Four of the top five quarterbacks on this list played yesterday in the Conference Championship Games.

You’ll notice that there’s a big drop-off once you get past the No. 5 quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. This is a group that Bears fans hoped Trubisky would eventually reach, but he has not gotten anywhere close to that.

Here’s a look at how the best-of-the-best have fared compared to Trubisky the last four seasons.

Notable QB – Total Points Since 2017

Brady Rodgers Allen Watson Mahomes Trubisky
2017 128 56 -- 48 9 32
2018 113 111 38 91 168 66
2019 91 133 53 85 127 21
2020 160 154 154 173 170 -2

Total Points takes nearly everything that SIS measures about a play and uses it to evaluate each player on a scale that allows you to compare them more easily.

The calculations ensure that (among many different things considered) off-target throws penalize the quarterback and don’t hurt the receiver and that drops don’t hurt the quarterback. Quarterbacks are also given full responsibility for the sacks they incur (less the value of any blown blocks by the offensive line).

To learn more about the stat, click on this article by Alex Vigderman that explains the system used in calculating it in detail.

We'll have another Stat of the Week on the Baseball Hall of Fame candidates later this week.



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